Distributed Solar Energy Generation

• Publication date: October 2011

Demand Drivers and Barriers, Technology Issues, Competitive Landscape, and Global Market Forecasts Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity was added in more than 100 countries during 2010. The distributed solar PV market is dominated by residential and commercial grid-connected PV systems and is concentrated in regions with favorable financial incentives, such as premium feed-in tariffs (FITs) including Germany, Italy, France, the Czech Re...

Demand Drivers and Barriers, Technology Issues, Competitive Landscape, and Global Market Forecasts

Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity was added in more than 100 countries during 2010. The distributed solar PV market is dominated by residential and commercial grid-connected PV systems and is concentrated in regions with favorable financial incentives, such as premium feed-in tariffs (FITs) including Germany, Italy, France, the Czech Republic, Japan, the United States (led by California), and Canada (led by Ontario). Europe will continue to be the largest market for distributed solar PV during this forecast period, but China and India’s growing economies and high percentages of population without access to electricity represent large market opportunities.

Consumer demand for distributed systems is growing as the cost of PV modules has continued its steady descent. Combined with innovative financing and leasing options, third-party and utility ownership models, and highly-effective feed-in tariff programs, solar PV is expanding faster than most expected. Today’s solar PV market is all about cost, which is good for consumers and installers, but brutal for manufacturers. Costs are expected to continue their rapid decline as Chinese crystalline silicon manufacturers gain market share and thin-film increases in efficiency. Pike Research forecasts almost $600 billion in revenues throughout the distributed solar PV value chain during the period between 2011 and 2015.

This Pike Research report analyzes the current status of, along with the future outlook for, the global market for distributed solar photovoltaics. The study includes an assessment of global trends, cost analysis, installation and pricing forecasts, market sizing, and an examination of the competitive landscape of solar PV manufacturers.

Key Questions Addressed:

- Which countries will lead in distributed solar PV development over the next four years – and why?
- How does distributed solar PV compare against other renewable distributed energy generation technologies?
- What are the most common applications of distributed solar PV systems?
- What is the current status and outlook for distributed solar PV financial incentives?
- How much does it cost to install distributed solar PV in each country?
- Who are the solar PV manufacturer market leaders and where are they working?
- How is technological innovation playing a role in the development of the distributed solar PV industry?
- What key barriers and opportunities will shape the distributed solar PV market?
- How much capital will be invested in total distributed solar PV installations by 2015?

Who needs this report?

* Solar PV module and component manufacturers
* Solar PV industry service providers
* Renewable energy technology suppliers
* Renewable energy project developers
* Utilities
* Economic development agencies
* Government agencies & regulators
* Investor community

Solar Photovoltaic Industry in Taiwan

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1 A Brief History

1.2 Big Growth in Small Markets

1.3 RDEG Market Growth: 2009-2015

1.4 The Three Primary Growth Drivers for Solar PV

1.5 The Solar PV Industry

1.6 Emerging Trends in Solar PV

2. Market Issues

2.1 Defining the Market

2.2 What Is Distributed Solar Generation?

2.3 Solar Power Systems

2.4 The Status of the Solar PV Market & Key Trends

2.4.1 Distributed Solar Gains Public & Political Traction vs. Centralized Solar

2.4.2 Austerity Measures Shift Incentives toward Smaller Distributed Systems

2.4.3 Distributed Generation Can Still Mean Thinking Big

2.4.4 Can Distributed Solar PV Continue its Price Declines and still be Profitable?

2.5 Industry Growth Drivers

2.5.1 Global Renewable Energy Generation Trends

2.5.2 Legislative and Regulatory Mandates

2.5.3 Financial Incentives and Public Policies

2.5.3.1 Feed-in Tariffs

2.5.3.2 Grants

2.5.3.3 Interconnection and Permitting Standards

2.5.3.4 Loan Programs

2.5.3.5 Net Metering Policies

2.5.3.6 Property Tax Incentives

2.5.3.7 Public Benefit Funds

2.5.3.8 Rebate Programs

2.5.3.9 Renewable Portfolio Standards

2.5.3.10 Sales Tax Incentives

2.5.3.11 Renewable Energy Certificates

2.5.4 Asset Ownership

2.5.5 Improvements to Existing Technologies

2.5.5.1 Photovoltaic Technology Innovations

2.5.6 Emergence of New Technologies

2.5.7 Microgrids

2.5.8 Other Drivers

2.5.8.1 Push for Energy Independence and Energy Security

2.5.8.2 Benefits of Green Marketing

2.5.8.3 World Demand and Pricing of Fossil Fuels

2.6 Implementation Issues

2.6.1 Grid Interconnection

2.6.2 Grid Integrity and Safety

2.6.3 Standards and Permitting

3. Technology Issues

3.1 Photovoltaic Systems

3.1.1 History

3.1.2 Basic Principles

3.1.2.1 PV Cell Types

3.1.2.2 Crystalline

3.1.2.3 Thin-Film

3.1.3 Strengths and Weaknesses

3.1.4 Costs

3.1.4.1 Module Costs

3.1.4.2 Economies of Scale

3.1.4.3 Installed Costs

3.1.4.4 Low-Cost Polysilicon

3.1.5 Efficiency

3.1.6 Reliability

3.1.7 Scalability

3.1.8 Availability

3.2 Grid-Tied vs. Off-Grid Installations

3.3 Distributed Solar PV Applications

3.3.1 Residential

3.3.2 Commercial/Retail

3.3.3 Government and Institutions

3.3.4 Farms

3.3.5 Telecom Primary and Backup Power

3.3.6 Marine, Remote Monitoring, and Security

3.3.7 Hybrid Systems

3.3.8 Community Projects

3.3.8.1 Solar Gardens and Solar Farms

4. Demand Drivers

4.1 Developed Nations vs. Developing Nations

4.2 North America

4.2.1 United States

4.2.1.1 Federal Level

4.2.1.2 State Level

4.2.2 Canada

4.2.3 Mexico

4.3 Europe

4.3.1 Germany

4.3.2 Spain

4.3.3 Italy

4.3.4 United Kingdom

4.3.5 France

4.3.6 European Union

4.3.7 Rest of Europe

4.4 Asia Pacific

4.4.1 China

4.4.2 Japan

4.4.3 South Korea

4.4.4 Australia

4.4.5 India

4.5 Rest of World

4.5.1 Africa

4.5.2 Middle East

4.6 Conventional Energy Sources

4.6.1 Fuel Supply and Demand

4.7 Electricity Rates

4.8 Cost/kWh: Solar PV vs. Conventional Sources

4.9 Permitting and Siting Centralized Plants

5. Market Forecasts

5.1 Distributed Photovoltaic Systems

5.1.1 Americas

5.1.1.1 United States

5.1.1.1.1. California

5.1.2 Canada

5.1.3 Europe

5.1.3.1 Established Markets

5.1.3.2 Emerging Markets

5.1.4 Asia Pacific

5.1.5 Rest of World

6. Competitive Landscape

6.1 Solar PV Module/Cell Manufacturers

6.2 Chinese & Taiwanese Manufacturers

6.3 Japanese Manufacturers

6.4 American Manufacturers

6.5 European Manufacturers

7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures

* PV Installation Costs, World Markets Price Index: 2009-2015
* Distributed PV Annual Capacity Additions, Americas: 2009-2015
* Distributed PV Annual Capacity Additions, Europe: 2009-2015
* Distributed PV Annual Capacity Additions, Asia Pacific: 2009-2015
* Top Solar PV Markets (Distributed and Non-Distributed, GW), World Market: 2010
* Cumulative Grid-Connected Solar PV Installations, Top 10 U.S. States: 2007-2010
* Comparing Current Status of Distributed Solar PV and Centralized Solar Projects in California
* Cost Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, United States and Germany ($/Peak W): 2010
* Forecasted Energy Use by Fuel Type: 1990-2035
* EIA Forecasts of Net Electricity Generation Fuels: 2007-2035
* Cumulative Installed Capacity by Region and Technology: 2009
* Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production: 2010
* Photovoltaic Cells
* Commercial Rooftop Solar PV System Prices, Various Technologies, U.S. Markets: 2010
* Annual Installed Grid-Connected PV Capacity by Sector, U.S. Markets: 2001-2010
* Representative Global Deployments of Telecom Backup Power by Technology
* Renewable Portfolio Standards by State
* Renewable Distributed Energy Generation Carve-Outs by State
* Third-Party Solar Purchase Power Agreements
* Average Household Electricity Rates, Select Countries: 2009
* Average Industrial Electricity Rates, Select Countries: 2009
* Comparative Cost of New Generation by Source: 2008
* Market Shares of Top 15 Solar PV Cell Manufacturers: 2010
* Top 15 Solar PV Cell Manufacturers, by Technology: 2010

List of Tables

* Distributed Energy Generation Technology Comparison
* PV Strengths and Weaknesses
* Renewable Energy Policies and Incentives Summary, World Markets
* Estimated Annual Growth of Distributed PV Capacity, World Markets: 2010-2015
* Distributed PV Global Annual Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2009-2015
* Distributed System Installed Price, World Markets: 2009-2015
* Estimated Distributed PV Installed System Revenue, World Markets: 2009-2015