Wind Turbine Opportunities and Outlook

• Publication date: May 2009

Wind Turbine Oppoirtunities and OutlookTechnology Innovations, Regulatory Structures, Key Market Players, and Global Growth DriversNew wind power generation capacity additions grew from 13% of all electricity additions in 2007 to 40% in 2008, reaching 121 GW by the end of 2008, up from 94 GW the year before (29% growth). The global market for wind turbines will continue to grow through 2015 driven by new generation additi...

Wind Turbine Oppoirtunities and Outlook

Technology Innovations, Regulatory Structures, Key Market Players, and Global Growth Drivers

New wind power generation capacity additions grew from 13% of all electricity additions in 2007 to 40% in 2008, reaching 121 GW by the end of 2008, up from 94 GW the year before (29% growth). The global market for wind turbines will continue to grow through 2015 driven by new generation additions as well as replacements of smaller, older turbines with new, larger, more efficient turbines.

Drivers of growth include rising demand for electricity, pro-wind regulatory environments, advantages over other renewables, and technological innovations driving down lifetime costs of producing wind power. Still, the growth of wind power will be inhibited by persistent economic disadvantages to traditional fuels and transmission line constraints. Taking these factors into account, Pike Research expects wind turbine sales to reach $43 billion by 2015.

This Pike Research report analyzes the opportunities and challenges facing wind power – particularly turbine manufacturers – in the current economic and political climate. The report provides a deep examination of the key market factors in the wind industry, including technology issues, regulatory frameworks, access to capital and financing structures, supply chain issues, and the wind turbine competitive landscape. Key players in the wind energy business are profiled and the report also includes rich quantitative analysis including market sizing, segmentation, market share analysis of top turbine vendors, and global growth forecasts by country through 2015.

Key questions addressed:

• What will be the global installed wind generation capacity by 2015?
• How many turbines will be required to meet wind generation capacity goals, including replacing aging fleets?
• What are the key industry growth drivers and challenges inhibiting growth of wind power?
• What are the economics of turbine manufacturing, installation, operations, and maintenance?
• What technological advances may drive down the lifetime costs of wind power production?
• What market shares do the top turbine manufacturers have of installed wind generate on capacity?

Who needs this report?

• Wind turbine manufacturers (OEM and components)
• Wind energy developers
• Wind turbine raw materials suppliers
• Wind energy investors
• Wind energy EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) providers
• Government agencies and regulatory officials
• Industry associations

Global Renewable Energy Industry

• 1. Executive Summary
• 2. Market Issues
• 2.1 Defining the Market
• 2.1.1 Wind Power in the Context of All Electricity Sources
• 2.1.1.1 Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity and Additions – All Sources
• 2.1.1.2 Global Renewable Electricity Generation Capacity and Additions
• 2.2 Industry Growth Drivers
• 2.2.1 Increasing Demand for Energy
• 2.2.2 Legislative, Regulatory, Incentives, and Subsidies
• 2.2.3 Advantages to Other Renewables
• 2.2.3.1 Lower Lifetime Costs than Solar and Hydroelectric
• 2.2.3.2 Potential Forecasting Improvements
• 2.2.3.3 Less Land Use Impacts than Solar
• 2.2.4 Improvements to Existing Technologies
• 2.2.4.1 Increasing Turbine Capacities
• 2.2.4.2 Self-Erecting Towers
• 2.2.4.3 Better Component Reliability
• 2.3 Implementation Issues
• 2.3.1 Economic Disadvantages to Nonrenewable Sources
• 2.3.2 Transmission Line Constraints
• 3. Technology Issues
• 3.1 Wind Turbine Basics
• 3.1.1 Towers
• 3.1.2 Nacelles and Interior Components
• 3.1.3 Rotors – Blades and Hub
• 3.1.4 Wind Turbine Raw Materials
• 3.1.5 Types
• 3.1.5.1 Horizontal Axis vs. Vertical Axis
• 3.1.5.2 Upwind vs. Downwind
• 3.1.5.3 Three Blades vs. Two Blades
• 3.1.5.4 Onshore vs. Offshore
• 3.1.5.5 Direct Drive vs. Traditional Geared Turbine
• 3.1.6 Marketability and Commercialization
• 3.1.6.1 Cost
• 3.1.6.1.1 Equipment Costs
• 3.1.6.1.2 Balance of Station Costs
• 3.1.6.1.3 Operations and Maintenance Costs
• 3.1.6.1.4 Refurbishment Costs
• 3.1.6.2 Efficiency
• 3.1.6.3 Reliability
• 3.1.6.4 Scalability
• 3.1.6.5 Availability
• 4. Market Forecasts and Demand Drivers by Region
• 4.1 World Energy Generation by Region
• 4.2 World Renewable Energy Generation by Region
• 4.2.1 Wind Energy Market Forecasts – Three Scenarios
• 4.2.2 Baseline Scenario (1) by Region
• 4.2.3 Recession Scenario (2) by Region
• 4.2.4 Recession Scenario (2) by Region
• 4.2.5 Estimated Global Wind Turbine Sales – Baseline Scenario
• 4.2.5.1 Turbine Prices Expected to Increase with Inflation
• 4.2.5.2 Demand for Turbines Partly Driven by Replacement of Aging Fleet
• 4.2.6 Estimated Wind Energy Production by Region – Baseline Scenario (1)
• 4.2.7 Wind Energy Forecasts by Region and Select Countries (Baseline Scenario)
• 4.2.7.1 North America
• 4.2.7.1.1 United States
• 4.2.7.1.2 Canada
• 4.2.7.2 Latin America
• 4.2.7.2.1 Brazil
• 4.2.7.2.2 Mexico
• 4.2.7.3 Europe
• 4.2.7.3.1 Germany
• 4.2.7.3.2 Spain
• 4.2.7.3.3 Italy
• 4.2.7.3.4 France
• 4.2.7.3.5 United Kingdom (UK)
• 4.2.7.3.6 Portugal
• 4.2.7.3.7 Netherlands
• 4.2.7.3.8 Denmark
• 4.2.7.3.9 Other European Countries
• 4.2.7.4 Asia Pacific
• 4.2.7.4.1 China
• 4.2.7.4.2 India
• 4.2.7.4.3 Japan
• 4.2.7.4.4 Australia
• 4.2.7.4.5 Other Asia Pacific Countries
• 4.2.7.5 Africa and Middle East
• 5. Key Industry Players
• 5.1 Established Turbine Designers, Integrators, and Manufacturers
• 5.1.1 ACCIONA Energia
• 5.1.2 Enercon
• 5.1.3 Gamesa
• 5.1.4 GE Wind Energy
• 5.1.5 Mitsubishi Power Systems
• 5.1.6 Nordex Group
• 5.1.7 REpower Systems AG
• 5.1.8 Siemens Energy Sector
• 5.1.9 Suzlon Energy Limited
• 5.1.10 Vestas
• 5.2 New Entrants and Innovators: Turbine Designers, Integrators, and Manufacturers
• 5.2.1 American Superconductor (AMSC) and Windtec (subsidiary)
• 5.2.2 Clipper Windpower
• 5.2.3 Eozen
• 5.2.4 Nordic Windpower
• 5.3 Turbine Component Manufacturers
• 5.3.1 Bosch Rexroth
• 5.3.2 LM Glasfiber
• 6. Company Directory
• 7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
• 8. Table of Contents
• 9. Table of Figures
• 10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
• Table of Charts and Figures
• Global Cumulative Electricity Capacity by Source: 2007
• Global Electricity Capacity Additions: 2007
• Global Cumulative Renewable Electricity Capacity by Source: 2007
• Global Renewable Electricity Capacity Additions by Source: 2007
• Comparative Household Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries: 1999-2006
• Comparative Industry Electricity Prices for Industrialized Countries: 1999-2006
• Global Installed Electricity Generating Capacity by Geographic Region: 2005-2025
• Electricity Generation Sources for U.S., OECD Europe and Japan: 2007
• Global Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity by Scenario: 2006-2015
• Global Annual Wind Power Capacity Additions by Scenario: 2007-2015
• Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity by Region, Baseline Scenario
• Annual Wind Power Generation Capacity Additions by Region, Recession Scenario
• Annual Wind Power Generation Capacity Additions by Region, Recession Scenario
• Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity by Region, Government Pullback Scenario
• Annual Wind Power Generation Capacity Additions by Region, Government Pullback Scenario
• Annual Wind Power Generation Capacity Additions by Region, Policy Forecast
• Cumulative Wind power Production, Baseline Scenario: 2006-2015
• Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity in North America, Baseline Scenario
• Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity in Latin America, Baseline Scenario
• Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity in Top 8 European Countries
• Cumulative Power Generation Capacity, Top 4 Asia Pacific Countries: 2006-2015
• Wind Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer: 2008
• American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009, Energy Funding
• Estimated Lifetime Generation Costs by Renewable Fuel Type
• Wind Speeds Can Drop Suddenly
• Land Conversion from Agriculture: Wind vs. Concentrated Solar Energy
• Causes of Bird Fatalities
• Wind Turbine Sizes Have Grown Dramatically Over 30 Years
• Estimated Lifetime Generation Costs by Power Production Plant Type
• Diagram of a Simple Wind Turbine
• Evolution of Turbine Tower Designs
• Diagram of a Sample Nacelle
• Rotor Diameters Increased More than 5X Since 1980
• Main Raw Materials Used in Wind Turbines: Concrete and Steel
• Other Key Raw Materials Used in Wind Turbines
• Horizontal and Vertical Axis Designs
• Select Wind Turbine Prices
• Sample Capital Costs of an Installed Turbine: 1.5 MW Example
• Types of Repairs on Wind Turbines (2.5 kW to 1.5 MW)
• U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards, Goals, and Required Renewables
• Summary of Opportunities and Challenges for Wind Power and Turbine Manufacturing
• Cost for Wind Turbine Components
• Policy Discount Factor by Country
• Renewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Latin America
• Renewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Top Europe
• Renewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Other Europe
• Renewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Top Asia Pacific Countries
• Renewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Other Asia Pacific Countries
• Renewable Energy Targets and Wind Energy Policies by Country, Africa and Middle East
• Table of Tables
• Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Baseline Scenario: 2006-2015
• New Additions of Wind Capacity by Country, Baseline Scenario: 2007-2015
• Growth in Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Baseline Scenario: 2007-2015
• Wind Energy Production by Country, Baseline Scenario: 2006-2015
• Average Wind Turbine Price per Kilowatt by Country: 2007-2015
• New Wind Turbines Deployed by Country: 2007-2015
• Replacement Wind Turbines Deployed by Country: 2007-2015
• Total Wind Turbines Deployed by Country: 2007-2015
• Wind Turbine Revenues by Country: 2007-2015
• Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Recession Scenario: 2006-2015
• New Additions of Wind Capacity by Country, Recession Scenario: 2007-2015
• Growth in Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Recession Scenario: 2007-2015
• Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Government Pullback Scenario: 2006-2015
• New Additions of Wind Capacity by Country, Government Pullback Scenario: 2007-2015
• Growth in Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity by Country, Government Pullback Scenario: 2007-2015
• Wind Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer: 2008