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  5. > Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 58 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We take a cautious view of the prospects for the Pakistani agribusiness sector. There arenumerous challenges facing producers of all commodities covered by this report, chief among them are adire security situation, erratic power supply, lack of availability of finance and vulnerability to extremeweather events. The sugar industry is the sub-sector we view as least promising due to its high productioncosts and poor relations between growers and processors. Nevertheless, the government has taken somepositive steps to improve the availability of higher quality seeds for rice, wheat and corn which should raiseyields in the medium term. Our expectation for rising prices out to 2019 also gives some grounds foroptimism regarding the key export commodities of rice and cotton.

Key BMI Forecasts

? Cotton consumption growth to 2019: 5.2% to 12.0mn 480lb bales. Favourable trade agreements withthe EU will see an increase in demand from the textile industry, but higher prices will see growth ratesmoderate in the latter years of the forecast period.

? Wheat production growth to 2018/19: 14.6% to 27.8mn tonnes. Production growth will be relativelymodest as farmers struggle with rising input costs, particularly fertiliser.? 2015 real GDP growth: 4.2%. Up from 4.1% in 2014. Forecast to grow annually by 4.2% to 2019.? Consumer price inflation (ave): 4.5% in 2015 (down from 8.6% in 2014).

Table Of Contents

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Rice Outlook 11
Table: Pakistan - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019) 13
Sugar Outlook 13
Table: Pakistan - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 14
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019) 16
Grains Outlook 16
Table: Pakistan - Wheat Production and Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Pakistan - Corn Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019) 20
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019) 21
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019) 21
Cotton Outlook 21
Table: Pakistan - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2011-2019) 24
Commodity Price Analysis 25
Global Commodities Strategy 25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 26
Upstream Analysis 28
Asia GM Outlook 28
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use 30
Asia Machinery Outlook 31
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (Cnybn) 34
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 34
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 37
Downstream Analysis 42
Food 42
Food Consumption 42
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2019) 43
Confectionery 43
Fish 43
Dairy 44
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2014-2019) 44
Regional Overview 45
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 49
Competitive Landscape 51
Table: Main Agricultural Companies 51
Demographic Forecast 52
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025) 53
Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025) 53
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025) 54
Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025) 55
Methodology 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sector-Specific Methodology 58

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