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  5. > Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We take a mixed view of the Nigerian agribusiness sector. The cocoa industry assumes agreater importance in the country's medium-term economic future now that oil revenues can no longer berelied upon as an easy source of foreign exchange. We remain cautiously optimistic that cocoa plantationsand processing facilities will continue to receive the public and private sector support needed to moveforward. Poultry, dairy, sugar, rice and wheat consumption are expected to continue to depend very largelyon imports to meet demand, although a much greater percentage of demand for each of these commodities(apart from wheat) could potentially be met by local production. Poor infrastructure, lack of access toinputs and basic technology, fragmentation and a lack of access to finance and expertise are among thefactors that lead us to take a pessimistic view of the medium-term prospects for self-sufficiency.

Key BMI Forecasts

-Cocoa production growth to 2018/19: 53.9% to 381,600 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficientlyelevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.
-Corn consumption growth to 2019: 1.5% to 7.9mn tonnes. Weaker demand from the livestockindustry will hold down consumption growth.
-2015 real GDP growth: 3.9% (down from 6.3% in 2014).
-2015 consumer price inflation (ave): 10.0% (up from 8.1% in 2014).

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Cocoa Outlook 11
Table: Nigeria - Cocoa Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks to Outlook 12
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Nigeria 2011-2019) 13
Rice Outlook 14
Table: Nigeria - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Nigeria 2011-2019) 17
Livestock And Dairy Outlook 18
Table: Nigeria - Poultry Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Nigeria - Pork Production and Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Nigeria - Milk Production and Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 20
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Nigeria 2011-2019) 21
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Nigeria 2011-2019) 21
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Nigeria 2011-2019) 22
Grains Outlook 23
Table: Nigeria - Wheat Production and Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Nigeria - Corn Production and Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Nigeria 2011-2019) 27
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Nigeria 2011-2019) 27
Sugar Outlook 28
Table: Nigeria - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 28
Table: Risks To Outlook 29
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Nigeria 2011-2019) 30
Commodities Price Analysis 31
Global Commodities Strategy 31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 31
Upstream Analysis 33
Africa Machinery Outlook 33
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 33
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 38
Africa GM Outlook 39
Table: Farm Size By Region 43
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 45
Downstream Analysis 51
Food 51
Food Consumption 51
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019) 52
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019) 53
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019) 53
Regional Overview 54
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 54
Competitive Landscape 61
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 61
Demographic Forecast 62
Demographic Outlook 62
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025) 63
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025) 63
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025) 64
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025) 64
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025) 65
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Sector-Specific Methodology 68

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