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  4. > Iran Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016

Iran Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 77 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Iran is the focus of intensive interest from investors in the petrochemicals industry, particularly Europeanmajors, but there is still an element of risk-aversion in spite of the hype. Although the sanctions are due tobe withdrawn, there is lingering uncertainty. Additionally, economic structural problems, a slowdown inkey export markets and the falling price of naphtha feedstock are deterrents for involvement in the ethanefedIranian petrochemicals sector. However, potential rewards are high with considerable Iranian upstreamresources and a large domestic market that investors cannot afford to ignore.Planned projects would raise Iran's petrochemicals capacity three-fold to 180mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by2022, although it is uncertain whether this target will be reached. BMI expects the next five years to see thecompletion of the Olefins 11 and 12 project, which will have capacities of 2.0mn tpa and 1.2mn tparespectively. Meanwhile, the USD12bn petrochemical hub at Chabahar - the Makran Petrochemical Plan -will add 1.2mn tpa of ethylene and 900,000tpa of polyethylene (PE).

Table Of Contents

Iran Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Production 15
Consumption 18
Table: Iran's Petrochemicals Industry, 2011-2020 ('000 tpa, Unless Otherwise Stated) 19
Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Economy To Grow Again On Sanctions Relief 21
Table: Economic Activity (Iran 2010-2019) 27
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Iran 2012-2019) 27
Industry Risk Reward Index 29
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 29
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q1 2016 34
Iran Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 35
Market Overview 36
Table: Iran's Cracker Capacity, 2013-2019 ('000 tpa) 38
Privatisation 39
Industry Trends And Developments 40
Post-Sanctions Outlook 40
Upstream Developments 41
Current Plans 43
Company Profile 47
National Petrochemical Company 47
Regional Overview 51
Middle East And Africa Overview 51
Market Diversification Crucial To Growth 53
Tightening Ethane Supplies 54
Diversification Is The Long-Term Focus 56
Africa Falls Behind 56
Global Industry Overview 58
Feedstock Differentials: Respite for Europe 58
2016 Feedstock Outlook 60
Could US Gas Run out? 61
Market Outlook: Chinese Downturn 62
Long-term Outlook 62
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride 66
Demographic Forecast 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025) 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025) 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025) 70
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 72
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 77

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