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South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 71 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The South African petrochemicals industry is in recession and it could take at least two years beforereturning to growth as key petrochemicals sectors flatline in a difficult operating environment. The sector isthe worst affected area of an economy that is enduring sub-2% growth and falling competitiveness.In the January-August period of 2015, basic chemicals rose just 0.1% y-o-y, while plastic fell 3.1% andrubber declined 0.4%. The decline in plastic and rubber output abated from May, but while rubber looked asif it was on an upwards trend, the plastics sector looked set for another year of contraction in 2015. Thefactors causing the decline include poor domestic market performance, lower international petrochemicalsprices and rising costs of inputs, including raw materials and labour.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Production 17
Table: South Africa's Chemicals and Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2019f 19
Macroeconomic Forecasts 20
Economic Analysis 20
Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2010-2019) 24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 25
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 25
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index - Q1 2016 30
South Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 31
Market Overview 33
Industry Trends And Developments 36
Sasol 36
Refining 37
Upstream 39
Company Profile 41
Sasol 41
Table: Sasol - Financial Results, Financial Year Ending June 30 (ZARmn), 2010-2014 44
Regional Overview 45
Middle East And Africa Overview 45
Market Diversification Crucial To Growth 47
Tightening Ethane Supplies 48
Diversification Is The Long-Term Focus 50
Africa Falls Behind 50
Global Industry Overview 52
Feedstock Differentials: Respite for Europe 52
2016 Feedstock Outlook 54
Could US Gas Run out? 55
Market Outlook: Chinese Downturn 55
Long-term Outlook 56
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride 60
Demographic Forecast 61
Demographic Outlook 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 64
Glossary 66
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 66
Methodology 67
Industry Forecast Methodology 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 69
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 70
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 71

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