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Poland Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • November 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Core Views

The export-driven recovery we have anticipated in Poland is now in motion, and we are now turning increasingly positive towards the country's domestic demand outlook. We expect a robust recovery in domestic demand in 2014, as low inflation, solid wage growth and an improving labour market bolster household purchasing power.
Poland's external position remains relatively strong and we estimate the current account deficit arrived at just 1.6% of GDP in 2014. However, a large stock of foreign-owned government paper and ongoing private sector deleveraging represent the two major risks to our sanguine outlook.
We continue to expect the Civic Platform (PO)-led government to serve out its term under new Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz. We also believe that the opposition will struggle to broaden its appeal despite rising government unpopularity, limiting its ability to challenge the ruling coalition.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our policy rate forecasts for 2014 and 2015, and now expect a further 25bps of cuts in 2014 and 25bps in 2015, taking the policy rate to 1.75% and 1.50% respectively. We expect the current account deficit to arrive at 1.6% of GDP in 2014, from a previous forecast of 1.8%.

Table Of Contents

Poland Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Major Forecast Changes 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Growing Challenges Ahead For Civic Platform
Donald Tusk's resignation has left Civic Platform exposed to challenges both domestically and internationally. While new Prime Minister
Ewa Kopacz should ensure broad based policy continuity, her appointment could mark the high water mark of Poland's influence in
regional foreign policy.
TABLE: Political Overview 8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
A Maturing Regional Power
We consider Poland's long-term political risk profile to be on an upward trajectory, reflecting the country's maturing political institutions
and greater confidence in the conduct of external affairs. Solid macroeconomic fundamentals underpin our expectation for improvement
over the long run. Nevertheless, Poland still faces significant challenges to political stability in its external relations and at home.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Shine Coming Off Recovery
Declining external demand is taking the shine off Poland's recovery, and our real GDP forecast remains below consensus for 2015.
TABLE: GDP By Expenditure 14
Balance Of Payments 16
Minimal External Account Impact From Russian Embargo
Poland's current account deficit will widen to 2.6% of GDP in 2015 as German industrial output softens and faltering Russian growth
reduces extra-EU demand. This will be offset partially by a weaker drag from the income account.
TABLE: Current Account 16
Fiscal Policy 17
Slower Pace Of Fiscal Consolidation
Pre-election spending pledges, weaker-than-expected economic activity and below-target inflation will slow the pace of fiscal
consolidation over 2015. However, the outlook for the sovereign credit profile remains stable.
TABLE: Fiscal Policy 17
Monetary Policy 19
Entering A New Easing Cycle
The decision by the National Bank of Poland to restart cuts to the policy rate confirms that we are moving into uncharted territory in
Polish monetary policy. With regional economic activity slowing, and Russia's embargo on EU agricultural goods increasing downside
pressure on consumer prices, further cuts now seem the most likely scenario.
TABLE: Moneta ry Polic y 19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Polish Economy To 2023 21
Long-Term Future Looks Bright
We forecast Polish real GDP growth to average 3.4% between 2014 and 2023, down slightly from 4.0% between 2001 and 2011.
Poland is well placed to avoid the pitfalls of the middle income trap and continue benefitting from large catch-up growth with the rich EU
economies.
TABLE: Long -Term Mac roec onomic Forecasts 21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 25
BMI's Operational Risk Index 25
Operational Risk 26
TABLE: Operational Risk 26
Transport Network 28
TABLE: Transp ort Netw ork Risk 28
Economic Openness 31
TABLE: Economic Openness 32
TABLE: Top 5 Products Imp orted (USDmn ) 33
TABLE: Top 5 Trade Partne rs and Product Exports (USDmn ) 33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors 35
Infrastructure 35
TABLE: Construction and Infrastructure Industry Data 36
Oil and Gas 38
TABLE: Oil Production 39
TABLE: Oil Production 39
TABLE: Gas Production 41
TABLE: Gas Production 41
Other Key Sectors 45
TABLE: Pha rma Sect or Key Indicat ors 45
TABLE: Telec oms Sect or Key Indicat ors 45
TABLE: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators 45
TABLE: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators 46
TABLE: Autos Sector Key Indicators 46
TABLE: Freight Key Indicat ors 46
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions 47
Global Outlook 47
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns 47
Table : Global Assumpti ons 47
Table : Devel oped States , Real GDP Growt H, % 48
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOO MBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GRO WTH FOR ECASTS, % 48
Table : Eme rging Markets , Real GDP Growth , % 49

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