1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report Q1 2014

Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report Q1 2014

  • November 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Political risk will remain elevated in Francophone West Africa, a
region characterised by weak state institutions and lasting political
instability. Violence in Mali and the collapse of the Central African
Republic highlight the fragility of impoverished inland countries and
the need for regional solutions to failed states.
Long-term economic growth in Francophone West Africa will average
just 5.0% over the coming 10 years, much lower than the 6.4%
that we forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa).
BMI believes that the economies of UEMOA will outperform those of
CEMAC, of which many are struggling with stagnating oil production.
E conomic growth in Côte d'Ivoire will remain elevated, averaging
8.0% between 2014 and 2017 on the back of increasing consumer
spending and government infrastructure projects. A new nationality
law offers hope that the country may eventually move past its divisive
'Ivoirité' debate, though we stress that progress will be slow.

Table Of Contents

Francophone West Africa Business Forecast Report Q1 2014
Executive Summary 9
Chapter 1: Regional Outlook 11
Long-Term Political Outlook 11
Enduring Fragility Across Francophone West Africa 11
The 16 states that make up Francophone West Africa have a variety of political systems; however - with the notable exception of
Senegal - all are characterised by weak institutions, poor governance and a history of unconstitutional transfers of power
Economic Activity 14
Francophone West Africa To Underperform 14
Poor business environments, stagnating oil production and a lack of economic diversification mean most economies in Francophone
West Africa will underperform their African peers over the coming decade, registering real GDP at an average annual rate of just 5 0
%between 2014 and 2023
Chapter 2 1: Political Outlook - Côte d'Ivoire 19
Domestic Politics 19
Nationality Law To Boost Long-Term Stability 19
While a law granting Ivorian citizenship to many of the country's long-term immigrants will be controversial in the short run, BMI believes
that the reform will help to address the ethnic divisions that have led to a decade of political crisis
Table: Political Overview 20
Chapter 2 2: Economic Outlook - Côte d'Ivoire 21
Economic Activity 21
Growth Momentum Maintained In 2014 21
We believe that Cote d'Ivoire will be one of the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the coming years as the economy
continues its impressive return to form following a decade of stagnation
Chapter 2 3: 10-Year Forecast - Côte d'Ivoire 23
The Ivorian Economy To 2022 23
Recovery Gathering Steam 23
While growth over the next 10 years is expected to improve on the previous decade, political uncertainty continues to exert a downward
pull on the country's potential
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 23
Chapter 2 4: Business Environment - Côte d'Ivoire 25
Business Environment Outlook 25
Institutions 25
Infrastructure 25
Market Orientation 27
Operational Risk 30
Chapter 3: Country Reports 33
Cameroon 33
Domestic Politics 33
Regional Crises Threaten Border Security 33
The deteriorating situation in the Central African Republic has caused more than 100,000 people to flee the country into Cameroon,
destabilising the country's eastern provinces We expect the ongoing crisis to bolster Cameroon's support for military intervention in its
war-town neighbour
Central African Republic 35
Domestic Politics 35
French Intervention Will Not Prevent Economic Collapse 35
The institutional implosion of the Central African Republic (CAR) will lead to a sharp economic contraction in the country, with headline
GDP expected to fall by 13 9% in 2013 and recovering to positive growth of just 0 9% in 2014
Congo-Brazzaville 37
Economic Activity 37
Economy Switching Growth Drivers 37
The rapid expansion of the iron ore mining sector is cushioning the effect of declining oil production in the Republic of the Congo We
expect economic growth in the country to average 6 7% over the five years to 2017 as infrastructure investment increases and iron ore
production begins at key projects
Equatorial Guinea 39
Economic Activity 39
Running On Fumes 39
The combination of stagnating oil production and faltering public investment spending has sent Equatorial Guinea's economy into a
crisis, and we expect the country's GDP to contract by 1 9% in 2013 and 0 4% in 2014
Gabon 41
Economic Activity 41
Fiscal Balance In Steep Decline 41
Stagnating oil production and an ambitious government investment programme will cause Gabon's fiscal situation to deteriorate
substantially over the coming years We predict that the fiscal surplus, which was worth 11 5% of GDP in 2008, will fall to just 1 3% of
GDP in 2014 The country will run a steadily worsening fiscal deficit starting in 2016
Guinea 43
Economic Activity 43
Political Fragility Will Not Prevent Mining Boom 43
Wide-scale protests are likely to occur when the results of Guinea's September 29 2013 legislative elections are finally announced,
and we predict that political tensions will escalate over the coming months Even so, our core view remains that mining investment will
continue, with major projects delayed but not cancelled outright 43
TABLE: Guinea and UEMOA States, Developmental Comparisons 43
Senegal 45
Economic Activity 45
Industrial Production Decline Bottoming Out? 45
Despite strong month-on-month gains in industrial production in July, Senegal's production levels are down on 2012 levels, driven by big
falls in food production The increase in July could, however, herald a stronger second half of the year, supporting economic growth
Chapter 4: BMI Global Assumptions 47
Global Outlook 47
Table: Global Assumptions 47
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, % 48
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, % 49

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Biorefinery Technologies: Global Markets

Biorefinery Technologies: Global Markets

  • $ 6650
  • Industry report
  • July 2016
  • by BCC Research

This BCC Research report provides a critical evaluation of the current status of commercial biorefinery markets and the ways in which recent environmental legislation and breakthroughs in technology will ...

Oilfield Process Chemicals: Global Markets

Oilfield Process Chemicals: Global Markets

  • $ 6650
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by BCC Research

Use this report to: - Analyze the chemicals involved in oil and gas exploration and production at the chemical manufacturing sales level - Discuss and classify the market on the basis of chemical application, ...

Industrial Plugs & Sockets Market by Protection, Type, End-User - Global Forecast to 2021

Industrial Plugs & Sockets Market by Protection, Type, End-User - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 6328
  • Industry report
  • October 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“The industrial plugs & sockets market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.82% from 2016 to 2021” The industrial plugs & sockets market is projected to reach USD 3.60 billion by 2021, growing at a ...


Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.