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Cameroon Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • November 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 40 pages

Core Views

N igeria-based Boko Haram will continue to launch attacks in northern Cameroon. Instability may yet spread to the country's economically dominant south.
F altering oil production and a sharp decline in global crude oil prices will cause Cameroon's current account deficit to widen over the coming years.
W e predict that real GDP growth in Cameroon will remain at 5.1% in 2015, before falling to 4.9% in 2016. This relatively downbeat forecast is largely due to the poor outlook for Cameroon's oil industry. We doubt that the Banque Centrale des Etats d'Afrique Centrale will loosen monetary policy further in the CEMAC region. Despite real
GDP growth in the bloc projected at just 3.8% in 2015, much lower than elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa, any attempt to cut the key interest rate from its historic low level would prove ineffective.

Major Forecast Changes

Lower oil prices have caused us to reduce our forecasts for export earnings and government revenue.

Table Of Contents

Cameroon Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Boko Haram Will Pose Lasting Threat
Nigeria-based Boko Haram will continue to launch attacks in northern Cameroon. Instability may yet spread to the country's
economically dominant south.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Index 11
Economic Activity 12
Oil Falters, But Growth Remains Robust
A poor performance from Cameroon's oil industry will cause real GDP growth to remain below the 2013 peak of 5.5%. Consumer
spending and capital investment will, however, keep headline growth relatively strong by Cameroonian standards.
Table: Economic Activity 12
Regional Monetary Policy 14
BEAC Unable To Spur Growth
Economic growth in CEMAC will fall far below the bloc's official target. The regional central bank lacks the ability to provide a meaningful
monetary stimulus.
Balance Of Payments 15
Current Account Deficit Set To Widen
Faltering oil production and a sharp decline in global crude oil prices will cause Cameroon's current account deficit to widen over
the coming years. Economic diversification and higher cocoa production will provide some support toward the end of our 2015-2018
forecast period.
Table: Current Account 16
Regional Economic Outlook 17
Ebola: Long-Lasting And Wide-Ranging Implications
Economic growth in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone will be severely hampered by the outbreak of Ebola, both in the near and short
term. Its effects will affect a number of sectors, most significantly the iron ore mining sector.
Table: Guinea - Economic Activity 17
Table: liberia - Economic Activity 18
Table: sierra leone - Economic Activity 18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 23
The Cameroon Economy To 2023 23
Trend Growth Will Accelerate
Economic growth in Cameroon will slow in 2016 due to a weak oil sector, but the country's long-term outlook is bright. Private
consumption, agricultural output, and capital investment will lift real GDP growth to an average of 5.4% between 2018 and 2023.
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 27
Operational Risk Index 27
Operational Risk 28
Table: Operational Risk 28
Transport Network 30
Table: Sub Saharan Africa Transport Network Risk 30
Economic Openness 34
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Economic Openness 34
Table: Product Exports, 2008-2012 (USDbn) 35
Table: Product Imports, 2008-2012 (USDmn) 36
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions 39
Global Outlook 39
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns 39
Table: Global Assumptions 39
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, % 40
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 40
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, % 41

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