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Ghana Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • November 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 38 pages

Core Views

E conomic growth in Ghana will be buoyant over 2015-2018 thanks to improving power supplies, rising oil production and strong investment inflows – the latter encouraged by IMF policy oversight. Foreign investment inflows will be robust thanks to Ghana’s abundant natural resources and relative political stability.
The current account deficit and fiscal deficit will remain key structural weaknesses in the economy.
Peaceful protests against economic hardship will continue, despite the fact that the government has approached the IMF for assistance. Ghanaians are wary of the conditions that may be attached to IMF support.

Table Of Contents

Ghana Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
On The Ground: Dissatisfaction, But High Hopes For IMF Deal 8
Our analyst on the ground in Accra reports that dissatisfaction with the Ghanaian government is high, as underscored by recent strikes
over the management of pensions. However, people are confident that negotiations with the IMF will be successful, ushering in a muchneeded
stabilisation of debt levels.
Table: Political Overview 8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Oil To Prove A Critical Test For The Polity 9
Ghana's political risk profile is relatively favourable, especially in the context of West Africa. However, oil revenues will require careful
management, presenting a formidable test for the government over the coming decade.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Economy On The Road To Recovery 14
Despite the ongoing economic turmoil in Ghana, real GDP growth will be strong over the coming years, fluctuating between 6.0-8.0%.
Forthcoming IMF support will underpin investor confidence and rising oil and gas output will provide a significant boost to the economy.
Tab le: Eco nomic Acti vit y 14
Exchange Rate Policy 16
GHS: Depreciatory Trend To Resume, Gently 16
The Ghanaian cedi's recovery has run its course. Depreciation will ensue over the coming two years owing to a wide current account
deficit. However, the losses will be milder than those incurred over the past 18 months, thanks to a more stable macroeconomic climate.
Table: Exchange Rate 16
Banking Sector Outlook 17
Banks Emerging Unscathed, Poised For Growth 17
The Ghanaian banking sector is emerging relatively unscathed from the past few months of economic turmoil, and is poised for robust
growth over the coming years.
Table: Currency Forecast 17
Table: Banking Sector Statistics 18
Regional Economic Outlook 19
Ebola: Long-Lasting And Wide-Ranging Implications 19
The ongoing West African Ebola outbreak will have a catastrophic effect on the economies and societies of Guinea, Liberia and
Sierra Leone. It also carries implications for economic growth in the wider West Africa region and in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole.
Restrictions on movement, rising prices and investor fears will hamper economic activity. The disease is not only stunting economic
growth and turning back years of development, it is also breaking down social links and engendering distrust. The ramifications will be
felt long after the disease's spread is brought under control as investment is curtailed, children orphaned and families ripped asunder.
For these states, already both economically and politically fragile, the effects will be devastating
Tab le: Gui nea - Eco nomic Acti vit y 19
Tab le: Lib eria - Eco nomic Acti vit y 19
Tab le: Sierra - Eco nomic Acti vit y 19
Chapter 3:10-Year Forecast 25
The Ghanaian Economy To 2023 25
Oil To Boost Growth Over The Long Term 25
We hold a positive long-term outlook on Ghana, forecasting that annual real GDP growth will average more than 6.0% over the coming
10 years. The ramping up of domestic oil production will provide significant impetus to the economy, allowing the mitigation of fiscal and
current account drags.
Tab le: Lo ng-Term Macro eco nomic For ecasts 25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 27
Operational Risk Index 27
Operational Risk 28
Table: Operational Risk 28
Transport Network 29
Table: Transport Network Risks 30
Economic Openness 33
Tab le: Eco nomic Openness 34
Tab le: Top Five Trad e Part ners -Product Imports (USDmn) 35
Tab le: Top 5 Product Exports (USDmn) 36
Chapter 5:BMI Global Assumptions 37
Global Outlook 37
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns 37
Tab le: Globa l Assumptio ns 37
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, % 38
Tab le: Em ergi ng Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , % 39

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