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Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

  • November 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 36 pages

Core Views

The political emergence of President Robert Mugabe’s wife Grace undermines Vice-President Joice Mujuru’s leadership ambitions. A clearer picture of the ongoing power struggle will emerge after the ruling ZANU-PF parity holds its congress in December. Zimbabwean economic growth will remain constrained by political risk, policy uncertainty, low commodity prices and a depreciating South African rand. A clear mandate for a reformist regime following the December ZANU-PF conference presents upside risks to our 2015 real GDP growth forecast of 2.7%. The Zimbabwean economy will remain near deflationary territory over the coming quarters owing to weak demand, a depreciating South African rand and low oil prices.

Table Of Contents

Zimbabwe Business Forecast Report Q1 2015
Executive Summary 5
Core Views 5
Key Risks To Outlook 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis 7
BMI Political Risk Index 7
Domestic Politics 8
Succession Question Nearing An Answer 8
The political emergence of President Robert Mugabe's wife Grace undermines Vice-President Joice Mujuru's leadership ambitions. A
clearer picture of the ongoing power struggle will emerge after the ruling ZANU-PF party holds its congress in December.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW 8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Mugabe's New Term: Key Challenges 9
Zimbabwe faces an uncertain political future following the resounding victory of President Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party in
the 2013. The main policy issues are likely to be the party's drive to indigenise the economy; questions about the independence of the
judiciary and security services; and the Zimbabwean government's turbulent relationship with the West. The race to succeed the ageing
Mugabe will also feature prominently in the years ahead.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Index 13
Economic Activity 14
Political Uncertainty, Weak Rand Weighing On Economy 14
Zimbabwean economic growth will remain constrained by political risk, policy uncertainty, low commodity prices and a depreciating
South African rand. A clear mandate for a reformist regime following the December ZANU-PF conference presents upside risks to our
2015 real GDP growth forecast of 2.7%.
Table : Economic Activit y 14
Monetary Policy 16
Inflation To Remain Near Zero Into 2015 16
The Zimbabwean economy will remain near deflationary territory over the coming quarters owing to weak demand, a depreciating South
African rand and low oil prices.
Table : Monetar y Polic y 16
Banking Sector 17
Banking Crisis Risks Growing 17
Increasing asset growth is not a sign that Zimbabwe's banks are returning to health as the source of this asset growth is not sustainable.
The sector continues to face significant challenges arising from high non-performing loans and tight liquidity. The absence of a lender of
last resort means risks of a major banking sector crisis remain high.
Regional Economic Outlook 19
Oil At USD60/bbl Would Be Negative For Region 19
Oil prices at USD60/bbl would have a harmful impact on Sub-Saharan Africa's economic growth outlook as the negative shock to the
region's net oil exporters would be greater than the boost received by net oil importers. Exporters would face deteriorating fiscal and
external positions, with Sudan particularly at risk. Importers would see their terms of trade improve and, in some cases, inflation decline.
Kenya would likely be the biggest beneficiary of low oil prices.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 21
The Zimbabwean Economy To 2023 21
Policy Risks To Constrain Long-Term GDP Growth 21
The performance of the Zimbabwean economy will remain inextricably linked to the policy and political climate over the coming
years. Although the trajectory of this is difficult to predict, at this juncture we believe that the economy will expand but only at a
very subdued rate as much-needed foreign investment will remain at bay owing to nationalistic policies of the ZANU-PF dominated
government.
Table : Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk 23
SWOT Analysis 23
Operational Risk Index 23
Operational Risk 24
Table: Operational Risk 24
Transport Network 25
Table : Sub -Saharan Africa - Transport Network Risks 26
Economic Openness 30
Table : Sub -Saharan Africa - Economic Openness Risk 31
Table : Imports 32
Table: Top Export Partners 33
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions 35
Global Outlook 35
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns 35
Table : Global Assumptions 35
Table : Developed States , Real GDP GrowtH , % 36
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 36
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growt h, % 37

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