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Italy Renewables Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:
Approval to earmark EUR9bn for renewables subsidies over the next 20 years, coupled with the transition to a more competitive incentive scheme will support an uptick in renewables capacity growth in Italy. This will be more sustainable for Italy's public finances, reducing the risk of retroactive subsidy cuts and therefore prompting us to upgrade our 10-year capacity growth forecast for the sector.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends


- On June 23 2016, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced that the government had approved and signed off a EUR9bn subsidy support scheme for the renewables sector - with the funds set to be distributed to project developers over a 20-year timeframe. As a result, our long-term outlook for the nonphotovoltaic (PV) renewables sector has improved, as we have repeatedly highlighted the uncertainty over Italy's long-term renewables sector expansion strategy as a substantial hurdle to growth. We do not expect any of these subsidies to be allocated the PV solar sector over the coming years, as the segment is reaching grid parity in certain parts of Italy.

- In addition to approving a long-term expansion strategy for the renewables sector, the Italian incentive extension for non-PV renewables capacity over 2016 was finally implemented on June 30 2016, after the European Commission verified that it did not breach state-aid laws. This has prompted us to upgrade our average annual wind power capacity growth rate from 2.3% to 2.6% between 2016 and 2018 - as the sector will gain the most from the planned auctions over 2016. The lack of a long-term auctions plan has led us to keep our relatively conservative wind power forecast post-2018, but we stress that risks are firmly placed to the upside.

Table Of Contents

Italy Renewables Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Italy 2015-2021) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Italy Renewables Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: Subsidy Extension To Boost Wind Power Capacity 17
Table: Options Open To Solar Operators Under The New Law 19
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025) 27
Italy Renewables Project Database 28
Table: Italy - Top Five Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Italy Renewables Risk/Reward Index 29
Rewards 29
Risks 30
Market Overview 31
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 31
Targets 31
Subsidies 32
Infrastructure 34
Table: Italy's Recent Power Transmission Sector Developments 36
Competitive Landscape 39
Enel 39
Edison 40
Gestore dei Servizi Energetici (GSE) 40
Terna 40
Vestas Wind Systems 41
Glossary 42
Table: Glossary Of Terms 42
Methodology 43
Methodology And Sources 43
Industry Forecast Methodology 43
Sources 45
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 45
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 47
Table: Weighting Indicators 48

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