Table of Contents
Impact of Mega Trends on the Future of Mobility
In the future, 85% of the US population will be living in urban areas. Increased connectivity among vehicles and roadway infrastructure will improve roadway safety, traffic congestion, and pave the way for adoption of autonomous driving technologies. In addition, people over the age of 65 will represent 20% of the population and constitute one of the largest consumer groups with specific transportation needs. This analysis by Frost & Sullivan details and analyzes 10 Mega Trends that are emerging as changes in population trends and purchasing habits occur. These Mega Trends will drive growth and innovation in the field of mobility in the United States, and this research service provides insights into the business opportunities that arise.
New Mega Trends—North America: Top Mega Trends Covered in Frost & Sullivan Research
What is a Mega Trend?
Mega Trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impacts on businesses, societies, economies, cultures, and personal lives.
Why do Mega Trends matter?
•Mega Trends have diverse meanings and impacts for different industries, companies, and individuals. An analysis of these Mega Trends and their implications forms an important component of a company’s future strategy, development, and innovation process, and impacts product and technology planning.
•The following research service sets the stage for visionary thinking by identifying the most important global Mega Trends that will significantly impact urban logistics and the implications of these Mega Trends for transforming society, markets, and cultures.
Executive Summary—Key Findings
1. Approximately X% of the total population in the United States will live in urban regions by 2025, and US cities will expand to form Mega Regions and Mega Corridors. North America could see 3 Mega Cities, 11 Mega Region, and 7 Smart Cities by 2025.
2. In 2020, people above the age of Xwill account for nearly one-fifth of the population. Currently, more than X% of new car purchases are made by people over X years of age.
3. Increased connectivity among vehicles and road infrastructure will improve road safety, traffic congestion and reduce emissions. It paves the way for adoption of autonomous driving technologies. In the US market, vehicle-to vehicle (V2V) technology will see commercialization and increased market acceptance between 2015 and 2020 while infrastructure for the vehicle-to infrastructure (V2I) technology will become popular between 2020 and 2025.
4. The demand for seamless navigation, telematics, and entertainment drives the growth of connectivity in cars. By 2020,X% of new cars will have some form of in-vehicle connectivity.
5. By 2025, X% of global retailing will happen through online channels. It is expected that by 2015, more thanX% of global new car sales will be influenced by the Web, through online promotions, online research, the virtual showroom experience, and online purchasing.
Urbanization—North America to See 8 SMART Cities by 2025
Most of pilot projects, innovation, and leadership in the Smart Cities space are taking place in North America.
Smart Cities, North America, 2025:
• Los Angeles
• New York
• San Francisco
• North America will lead the world in new smart energy capacity in the next Xyears. The United States will lead the smart grid market in the next X years with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of X%– %.
• The smart technology market in North America will grow by X% by 2015. Nearly X smart technology projects are underway in North America.
• The smart building market opportunity is expected to peak in 2020. North America accounted for X% of the smart building market in 2011 and is estimated to account for X%– % in next few years.
• The United States is expected to lead in the smart transport market in North America. It plans to be the world's largest real-world test of smart-vehicles.
Smart is the New Green—Smart Car
The Smart Cloud is critical among the six key pillars of the smart car definition.
Pillars of Smart Car Definition, US, 2012:
• Eco-driving aids eco driving analysis and information presentation to driver
• Within the vehicle: multimodal HMI*—concerned with presentation of information to user
• Personal media such as iPod, iPhone, iPad bridging digital life style gaps in the car
• Device connectivity both for content and data pipe (tethered connectivity model)
• Partnerships with Toyota, Ford and now Nissan for cloud usage
• Outside the vehicle sensors, V2V, V2I, V2H, D2D, ADAS, crowd sourcing, cloud interaction
Bricks and Clicks—Current Digital Car Retailing Trends in North America
Digital Within Existing Model
Unlike Europe, North American OEMs and dealers are pursuing digitization models through existing stores. Significant investments are being made in updating the store technology, training the staff, and digitally integrating various aspects of the car retailing process.
Greater Focus on Off-store Digitization
While some investment is being made in in-store tools such as tablets and kiosks, the key focus remains on the utilization and recalibration of off-store digital media such as websites, apps, and social media.
Lead Generation Key Digitization Objective
Dealers are not using online and mobile platforms to sell vehicles. Rather, these media serve as the first touch point with the consumer. The key objective continues to be to attract the consumer to the dealership.
The evolutionary approach to technology in digital retailing dominates in North America.
Executive Summary—Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
• In the US over X% of the population will be urban by 2025.
• Globally, X satellites will exist by 2021.
• One-fourth of the US population will be over the age ofX by 2020.
• Connected devices for every American by 2020.
• More than X% of all retail sales will be on-line by 2020.
•Cities have the potential to contribute approximately $X billion to the GDP by taking measures to meet the demand for intelligent and Smart City solutions such as integrated door-to-door solutions, interoperable technology networks, and intelligent transport city solutions.
•Immense potential exists for the United States to tap into microsatellite manufacturing and its support services.
•Promotion of products and services designed to meet the needs of the new elderly, such as driving and parking assistance, and innovative products with robotic technology and artificial intelligence will prove lucrative.
•The evolution of a bricks-and-clicks model is changing the way most industries retail. However, it is most significant in the luxury market. In the luxury car market, premium automotive OEMs are taking a more digital approach to car retailing.
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