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Sales forecasts for Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer's anticoagulant product Eliquis have declined notably in recent months. According to Bloomberg, current consensus estimates suggest 2018 global revenues of $2.3 billion. This compares to a previous estimate of $3.8 billion as recently as April and expectations of over $5 billion last year prior to the drug gaining full regulatory approval.
On paper, Eliquis has the strongest clinical profile among the new generation of oral anticoagulants, argue numerous analysts and key opinion leaders (KOLs), however, this has yet to translate into commercial performance since launch. Furthermore, Bayer and Johnson & Johnson's Xarelto has continued to see its revenue performance improve robustly in recent quarters, adding further pressure on expectations for Eliquis.
When FirstWord polled US-based cardiologists in June about their usage of Eliquis, feedback suggested that superiority over Xarelto and Boehringer Ingelheim's Pradaxa was not a widely held view FirstWord Pharma PLUS subscribers can view the results and analysis from this poll here.
This may change as experience with the product increases, while both Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer have argued that formulary positioning – which they expect to improve over the remainder of 2013 – and direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising should drive an inflection in sales for Eliquis.
In Europe, the market for next-generation oral anticoagulants continues to expand robustly, noted analysts at Barclay's recently, but Eliquis – against their expectations – is failing to assume the levels of market share anticipated. This could benefit Xarelto significantly, they suggest, given that the market for these products is expected to double over the next 12 months.
Reasons to Buy this Report
This week's FirstWord Physician Views poll will ask:
• How do the clinical profiles of oral anticoagulants compare with warfarin?
• How does the clinical profile of Eliquis compare to other oral anticoagulants?
• Which product – Eliquis, Pradaxa or Xarelto – is their favoured treatment option?
• For what reason did they select that product?
• In what percentage of atrial fibrillation patients do they expect to be prescribing Eliquis to in 18 month's time?
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