Analysis and Forecast of China TDI Market 2009-2010

Analysis and Forecast of China TDI Market 2009-2010

Currently the number of global TDI enterprises is over 30 with more than 40 sets of TDI production lines, the total production capacity is 2.1 million tons / year and mainly located in Asia, Europe and the United States,

In China, TDI is mainly used in soft foam sponge of sofa and mattress, accounting for 75% of its total demands, while coating accounting for 16% and others, such as bonding adhesives, elastomer, and sole stock solution, accounting for about 9%. In 2008, the total TDI demand was more than 400,000 tons.

Presently, the Chinese major TDI producers are Shanghai BASF, Gansu Yinguang Chemical Industry Group, Cangzhou Dahua, Blue Star Cleaning and Yantai Juli Chemical. In addition, the Blue Star Cleaning and Cangzhou Dahua are ChemChina’s holding companies, and Gansu Yinguang Chemical Industry Group holds by China North Industries Group Corporation.

In 2008, China achieved 230,000 tons TDI, and imported 190,000 tons. In terms of the expansion of TDI production capacity during 2009-2010, it is expected that by the end of 2010, the TDI production capacity in China will reach to 440,000 tons, but considering the operating rate which normally maintain in 80%, thus in 2010, China still need to import 140,000 tons TDI, the domestic self-sufficiency rate may rise to 71%. However, after 2011, Bayer’s 250,000 tons brand new TDI production plant will put on production in Shanghai, which will satisfy domestic demand and the imports will be reduced.

Since 2008, the cost of TDI maintained stable. The gross profit primarily depends on the price fluctuation. The correlation coefficient between gross profit and price during 2007 to September 2009 was 0.96, therefore, the price of TDI is the key factor for the industry profitability. The reason is the concentration of TDI’s upstream and downstream industry is relatively low, the TDI producers have a positive bargaining power.

Content
1 Overview of global TDI market
1.1 Production capacity
1.2 Supply and Demand

2 China TDI market
2.1 Demand
2.2 Supply

3 TDI Price

4 Technical barriers and substitute
4.1 Technical Barriers
4.2 The cost and performance of the MDI is the biggest obstacle to replace TDI

5 Cangzhou Dahua
5.1 Profile
5.2 Performance
5.3 Capacity


Figure
The demand of TDI by sector in China
The demand growth rate of TDI in China in recent year
China TDI self-sufficiency rate
Forecast of supply and demand of TDI in China before 2011
TDI Price
The main reason caused the high price level of TDI
The high technical barriers of TDI
Cangzhou Dahua Ownership Structure
Cangzhou Dahua's main revenue constitutes
Cangzhou Dahua’s net profit in recent years
The average price of TDI in 2009 is lower than 2008
The rising of average price of TDI and decreasing of average price of urea
The quarterly gross margin and net profit of Cangzhou Dahua in 2009Q3
TDI capacity of Cangzhou Dahua
The average prices and gross profit margin of TDI products of Cangzhou Dahua

Table
The global TDI producers and production capacity of 2008
The unbalance of supply and demand in different regions globally
The major exporting and importing countries in 2008
The major Chinese supplier of TDI
The overhauling of TDI production lines during Oct 2006 to 2009 in China