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China Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 127 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
China's bearish crude oil output story will continue to remain in play, with output expected to see consistent declines of 1.0% per annum through to 2025. The outlook for natural gas remains positive, however, with both production and consumption set to experience healthy growth over the next decade. As its rising energy needs will not be met via production, China will become increasingly dependent on crude oil and natural gas imports. Meanwhile, relentless refinery runs among domestic refineries will ensure China's exports of refined fuels continue to grow, flooding the regional market and crimping margins.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts


- We forecast China's crude oil production to decline consistently over the next decade, as subdued oil prices, depleting conventional onshore resources and shifting investment focus to natural gas drag on overall output.

- Consequently, the outlook for natural gas production is more positive, with average annual growth over 2016-2025 expected to come in at 5.0%. Longer-term growth will be driven by greater exploitation of unconventionals, such as shale and coal-bed methane.

- The Chinese fuels market remains oversupplied, and though healthy demand for light distillates (gasoline and jet fuel) will continue to encourage refiners to maintain run rates. Excess supplies will be offloaded onto the exports market, weighing on prices and hitting margins.

Table Of Contents

China Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 9
Table: Headline Forecasts (China 2014-2020) 9
SWOT 10
Oil and Gas SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
China - 13th Five-Year Plan: NPC Sets Stage For Deeper Energy Sector Reforms 12
Upstream Exploration 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Key Offshore JVs 16
Table: Recoverable Shale Gas Estimates In China 19
Table: Major IOC Involvement In China's Shale Gas Exploration 20
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (China 2014-2019) 23
Table: Proven Oil And Gas Reserves (China 2020-2025) 23
Upstream Projects 24
Table: China - Key Upstream Projects 24
Upstream Production - Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Risks To Outlook 35
Table: Oil Production (China 2014-2019) 36
Table: Oil Production (China 2020-2025) 36
Upstream Production - Gas 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Growth Sources 38
Risks To Outlook 39
Table: Gas Production (China 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Production (China 2020-2025) 40
Refining 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (China 2014-2019) 44
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (China 2020-2025) 45
Refined Fuels Consumption 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends 45
Table: Refined Products Consumption (2014-2019) 48
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (China 2020-2025) 48
Gas Consumption 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 49
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2014-2019) 51
Table: Gas Consumption (China 2020-2025) 51
Trade - Oil 52
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 52
Latest Updates 52
Structural Trends 52
Crude Oil Trade Partners 54
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2014-2020) 55
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 55
Fuels Trade Forecasts 55
Latest Updates 55
Structural Trends 55
Fuels Trade Partners 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2014-2019) 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 57
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 58
Latest Updates 58
Structural Trends 58
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2014-2019) 60
Table: Gas Net Exports (China 2020-2025) 61
Industry Risk Reward Index 62
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 62
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 63
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index 65
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index 68
China - Risk/Reward Index 69
Upstream Index 69
Rewards 69
Risks 69
Downstream Index 70
Market Overview 71
China Energy Market Overview 71
Regulatory Structure 71
Fiscal Regime 72
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators 72
Table: Offshore Production Royalty Structure 74
Table: China: Tiered Gas Pricing For Residential Users 75
Table: Shanghai: Tiered Gas Pricing System For Residential Users 75
Licensing Regime 76
Table: 2014 Offshore Blocks Open To Foreign Participation 76
Table: Winners Of Second Shale Gas Licensing Round 77
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 79
Oil Refineries 79
Table: Oil Refineries In China 79
Table: Commercial Crude Oil Storage Terminals In China 82
Crude Oil Pipelines 83
Table: Major Oil Pipelines In China 83
LNG Terminals 84
Table: LNG Regasification Terminals In China 84
Gas Storage Terminals 87
Gas Pipelines 87
Table: Major Gas Pipelines In China 87
Coal-To-Gas Plants 88
Table: Planned CTG Plants 88
Coal-To-Gas Pipelines 89
Table: Planned CTG Pipelines 89
Competitive Landscape 90
Company Profile 92
CNOOC 92
Table: Major Producing Areas 93
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 94
Operational Data 94
CNPC 95
Table: Major Upstream Assets 96
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 97
Operational Data 97
Sinopec 98
Table: Major Upstream Assets 99
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 100
Regional Overview 101
Asia - Oil Outlook Subdued On Persistent Price Weakness 101
Appendix 109
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 109
Summary Of Contents 109
Chapter 1: Overview 110
Table: Targets 110
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 111
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 112
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 113
Chapter 5: Industries 114
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 115
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 115
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 116
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 117
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 118
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 118
Others: 118
Glossary 120
Table: Glossary Of Terms 120
Methodology 122
Industry Forecast Methodology 122
Source 124
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 124
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 126
Table: Weighting 127

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