South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015

  • January 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 130 pages

BMI View:

South Korea's industrialised economy combined with the country's lack of significant oil and natural gas reserves will keep Seoul a large importer of crude oil and natural gas. Poor crude oil refining margins and high oil prices may turn the country's large petrochemical sector towards gas, which would support the growing importance of gas over oil in the economy. Major changes in the regional Asian gas trade and LNG will also affect Seoul's decision-making on this issue. Russia's prospects of penetrating to the East, as well Iran's opening up to other Asian markets, while Qatari LNG continues its enhances in quality and availability will greatly assist South Korea's future energy needs.

The key trends for South Korea's oil and gas sector are:

- South Korea's large refining sector will keep its crude oil import requirements high. It is also heavily exposed to the Middle East, given that the region supplies more than 80% of its crude oil needs.
- Oil refining margins in South Korea are being increasingly squeezed by stronger regional competition and slower demand growth in export markets. In 2012, refined petroleum was the largest South Korean export, accounting for 9.17% of total exports.

Table Of Contents

South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q1 2015
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (South Korea 2012-2018) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2012-2017) 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (South Korea 2018-2023) 10
Upstream Projects 15
Table: South Korea's marginal oil and natural gas reserves have made any initiation for exploration much more difficult, particularly
considering the cost of offshore exploration. With the slump in oil prices that began in the latter half of 2014, the economic feasibility of
domestic exploration has only become more unworkable. Incidentally, South Korea's state KNOC and KOGAS have announced that in lieu of
more foreign asset acquisition, they are now focused on reducing debt. 15
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2012-2017) 16
Table: Oil Production (South Korea 2018-2023) 16
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2012-2017) 18
Table: Gas Production (South Korea 2018-2023) 18
Refining 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2012-2017) 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (South Korea 2018-2023) 20
Refined Fuels Consumption 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Korea 2012-2017) 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (South Korea 2018-2023) 23
Gas Consumption 27
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2012-2017) 27
Table: Gas Consumption (South Korea 2018-2023) 27
Trade - Oil 29
Crude Oil Trade 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2012-2017) 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (South Korea 2018-2023) 30
Crude Oil Trade 31
Refined Oil Trade 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2012-2017) 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (South Korea 2018-2023) 34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (South Korea 2012-2017) 37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (South Korea 2018-2023) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2012-2017) 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (South Korea 2018-2023) 39
Table: Major Korean LNG Supply Deals 42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 44
Asia - Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: Asia's Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Index 45
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement 48
Table: Asia OandG Downstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Downstream Support 51
South Korea - Industry Risk Reward Index 54
South Korea Upstream Index - Overview 54
South Korea Upstream Index - Rewards 54
South Korea Upstream Index - Risks 54
South Korea Downstream Index - Overview 54
Market Overview 55
South Korea Energy Market Overview 55
Role Of The State 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: Refineries In South Korea 56
Service Stations 57
Oil Storage 58
LNG Terminals 59
Table: LNG Terminals In South Korea 59
Gas Storage 59
Gas Pipelines 60
Competitive Landscape 61
Competitive Landscape Summary 61
Table: Key Players - South Korean Oil And Gas Sector 62
Table: Key Upstream Players 62
Table: Key Downstream Players 63
Company Profile 64
Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) 64
Korea Gas (Kogas) 68
SK Innovation 73
Other Summaries 77
Regional Overview 80
Asia Overview 80
Slower Oil Consumption Growth 80
Significant Oil Importer Still 83
Tightening In The Downstream 85
Gas Demand Growth To Outshine Oil 87
Gas Production And Export Rise 88
Asia To Absorb Gas Export Growth 90
A Hot Market For LNG 91
Strategies To Lower LNG Prices 94
Sino-Russian Gas Deal Promises Softer Prices 95
Global Industry Overview 96
Table: Key US Production Zones Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl) 98
Table: Canadian Oil Sands Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl) 99
Table: Middle East Onshore Conventional Breakeven Cost Per Barrel, (USD/BBL) 100
Table: Average Fiscal Breakeven Prices Of Key Middle East Producers 2014 (USD/bbl) 100
Appendix 102
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts 102
Table: Energy Price Forecasts ( Global 2012-2017) 102
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2018-2023) 103
Asia - Regional Appendix 104
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 104
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 105
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 106
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 107
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d) 108
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d) 108
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 109
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 110
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 111
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 112
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm) 113
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm) 113
South Korea - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts 115
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (South Korea 2012-2017) 115
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (South Korea 2018-2023) 115
South Korea- Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts 116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Korea 2012-2017) 116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (South Korea 2018-2023) 117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Korea 2012-2017) 118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (South Korea 2018-2023) 119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Korea 2012-2017) 120
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (South Korea 2018-2023) 121
Glossary 123
Table: Glossary Of Terms 123
Methodology 125
Industry Forecast Methodology 125
Source 127
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 127
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 129
Table: Weighting 130

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