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- South Korea Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 1 2012
South Korea Oil and Gas Industry Update Quarter 1 2012
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BMI View: While there are new efforts to stimulate upstream oil and gas activity and improve energy
self-sufficiency, there is little to suggest that South Korea can develop significant resources, meaning the
country is set to remain a key importer of crude and natural gas in liquefied form. Meanwhile, the
government is planning fresh initiatives aimed at reducing oil consumption, while the state gas industry
continues to buy into overseas LNG schemes to meet growing demand.
The main trends and developments we highlight for the South Korean Oil & Gas sector are:
The extension of a contract between France's GDF Suez and Korea Gas Corporation (Kogas)
is a positive development in securing supply from a stable source for the world's second largest
importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). With pipelines untenable due to hostile relations with
the North, imports of LNG are critical to powering the country's economy.
The economy relied on oil for an estimated 40.0% of its energy needs in 2010, and while this
figure is expected to have declined to 37.5% in 2012, the government aims to reduce it further to
33.0% by 2015. This would enable the country to shave oil consumption by 26mn barrels in
three years. Given that the country imports almost all of its oil, volatility in oil prices stands to
be a perennial problem for the economy. The government-led energy savings drive introduced
in May 2012 had a strong focus on the transport sector, which accounts for 32.7% of all oil used.
Plans are being drafted to raise fuel efficiency guidelines to amongst the best in the world by
2025. Our oil demand growth assumptions are cautious, averaging less than 0.5% per annum
through to 2017, before stagnating as fuel substitution and energy-saving measures slow
consumption growth. BMI is forecasting oil consumption of 2.26mn barrels per day (b/d) by
2017, compared with an assumed 2.23mn b/d in 2012. South Korean net oil imports are set to
remain at around 2.21-2.24mn b/d over the next five years, costing an estimated US$80.2bn in
2013 and falling to US$76.4bn by 2017. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil
price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.
Gas net import costs of US$27.7bn are forecast for 2017, rising to US$29.2bn by 2021.
Combined with oil import expenses, total petroleum costs are put at US$104.1bn in 2017 and
US$103.9bn in 2021.
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