India Tourism Industry Update Quarter 1 2011

• Publication date: November 2011

Visitor Arrivals Poised For Strong 2010 Data released by the Indian Ministry of Tourism in September 2010 showed that tourist arrivals continued to grow strongly into the third quarter of the year. Arrivals totalled 3.8mn in the first nine months of the year, representing year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 10.0%. Growth appears to be accelerating throughout the year, with y-o-y growth in September reaching 12.6%, compared to 9.0% in Augus...

Visitor Arrivals Poised For Strong 2010
Data released by the Indian Ministry of Tourism in September 2010 showed that tourist arrivals continued
to grow strongly into the third quarter of the year. Arrivals totalled 3.8mn in the first nine months of the
year, representing year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 10.0%. Growth appears to be accelerating throughout
the year, with y-o-y growth in September reaching 12.6%, compared to 9.0% in August, 4.1% in July and
8.0% in June.
These figures suggest that India is returning to its usual cycle of strong growth towards the end of the end
during the high tourist season. Although figures have not yet been released for October, when the
Commonwealth Games were held, we believe that the September arrivals bode well for strong growth in
October. Although arrivals may then dip in November, following many visitors choosing to take holidays
during the Games, the Christmas season should continue the trend for recovering arrivals.
Commonwealth Games Passed Off Successfully
New Delhi hosted the 19th Commonwealth Games between 3 and 14 October 2010. The run-up to the
Games was marred by concerns about whether preparations were completed on time, particularly with
regard to the unfinished athletes’ village. Several countries stated that they would not send their teams to
the Games unless the conditions were improved. In the end, preparations were largely finished in time
and all countries sent their teams. The games were generally agreed to be a success, but the bad publicity
surrounding the preparations has been negative for India, undermining the impression of organisation and
modernity that the country had hoped to project. The games therefore were probably not as productive in
terms of attracting potential as the government had hoped, meaning that tourist arrivals are unlikely to
receive a long-term boost from the games.
Air India Considers Renaming Carriers
Struggling national carrier Air India is considering renaming several of its constituent industry players and
relocating them in an attempt to improve operational finances. Air India has stated that it will rename its
parent industry player National Aviation Firms of India Limited (NACIL). Its regional low-cost service,
Air India Express, will be renamed, potentially as India Hopper, and be relocated from Mumbai to
Thiruvananthapuram, in Kerala. As most of the carrier’s customers are from Kerala, this relocation is
intended to reduce costs and improve staff efficiency.

Tourism Industry in India

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis .... 6
India Tourism SWOT ... 6
India Political Environment and Risk Analysis ... 7
India Economic Environment and Risk Analysis . 8
India Business Environment SWOT . 9

Market Projection Scenario ... 10
Arrivals .. 10
Data : Arrivals Data, from 2006 to 2014 ... 10
Expenditure . 12
Data : Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact, from 2006 to 2014 .. 12
Inbound Tourism ... 13
Data : Tourists Arrivals By Region, from 2006 to 2014 . 13
Data : Tourist Arrivals By Country, from 2006 to 2014 (‘000) 13
Outbound Tourism 16
Data : Outbound Tourism Data, from 2006 to 2014 . 16
Data : Resident Departures By Destination Country, from 2006 to 2014 (‘000) .... 17

Industry Analysis – Travel . 18
Commercial Airlines .. 18
Focus On Jet Airways 19
Focus On Kingfisher Airlines ... 19
Focus On Low-Cost Carriers .... 20
Data : Airlines’ Domestic Industry Share, 2010 .. 20
Improving Infrastructure 21
Cruise Segment ... 22
World Oil Products Price Outlook 22
Data : Oil Products Price Assumptions, 2010 (US$/bbl) .. 24
Data : Oil Product Price Projections , from 2008 to 2015 (US$/bbl) .... 25

Industry Analysis – Hospitality ... 26
Hotels 26
Data : Hotels Data, from 2006 to 2014 (‘000) 27
Accommodation Developments . 27
Gaming .. 29
Special Focus: 2010 Commonwealth Games .... 30
Special Focus: Medical Tourism .... 31
H1N1 And H5N1 Virus Updates .... 32

Environment Overview Outlook . 34
Data : Asia Travel & Tourism Business Environment Ratings .... 34
BMI’s Security Ratings ... 34
Data : Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings ... 35
Data : Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .. 36
India’s Security Ratings .. 36
India Tourism Report Q1 2011
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
City Terrorism Ratings ... 38
Data : BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index .. 39
South Asia Security Overview ... 40
Currency Projection .. 51
World Assumptions ... 53
Data : World Assumptions, from 2009 to 2014 ... 53
Data : World And Regional Real Gross Domestic Product Growth And Exchange Rates, from 2009 to 2012 .... 54
Data : BMI And Consensus Projections , from 2010 to 2011 (%) .... 55
Data : Developed States Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Projections , from 2009 to 2012 (%) 56
Data : Emerging Industry s Aggregate Growth, from 2009 to 2012 (%) .... 57
Company Profiles ... 58
Jet Airways . 58
Taj Hotels ... 60
National Aviation Firms of India (Air India) 61
BMI Methodology ... 63
How We Generate Our Market Projections ... 63
Tourism Market ... 63
Tourism Ratings – Methodology .... 64
Data : Tourism Business Environment Indicators .. 65
Data : Weighting Of Components .. 66
City Terrorism Ratings ... 66
Data : City Terrorism Ratings Methodology . 68
Sources .. 68