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Russia Agribusiness Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Russia’s poultry and pork sectors will perform strongly as consumer demand is growing and domestic production is looking to bridge the gap left by EU imports, which will not resume until 2018 according to the current timeline. Wheat will outperform the grains complex out to 2020 due to elevated farmgate prices in rouble terms and strong opportunities on the domestic and export markets, which will maintain production incentives. The Russian dairy sector will benefit from growth momentum until 2018 due to the EU embargo. In particular, cheese production will see solid gains in a bid to gain market share. Afterwards, dairy producers will face lower subsidies and lower prices, which will accelerate consolidation in the industry.

Key Forecasts

- Wheat production growth in 2016/17: 14.8% y-o-y to 70.0mn tonnes.

- As we suggested in our Q416 report, we have revised significantly upward our 2016/17 wheat production forecast to 70.0mn tonnes, an historical high and strong growth of 14.8% y-o-y. The Russian wheat harvest is now complete and output growth revealed much stronger than we anticipated.

Table Of Contents

Russia Agribusiness Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Russia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 13
Table: Risks To Outlook 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Russia Grains Production and Consumption 16
Sugar Outlook 17
Table: Russia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Table: BMI Sugar Production and Consumption (Russia, 2012-2020) 19
Dairy Outlook 19
Latest Updates 20
Table: Russia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Russia - Risks To Dairy Outlook 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption 24
Livestock Outlook 25
Latest Updates 25
Table: Russia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 26
Table: Russia - Risks To Livestock Outlook 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Russia 2012-2020) 29
Commodities Forecast 30
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 30
Upstream Analysis 32
Europe GM Outlook 32
Europe Machinery Outlook 38
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (company-based estimates) 41
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 43
Downstream Analysis 49
Food 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 50
Table: Food Sales (Russia 2013-2020) 50
Regional Overview 53
Europe Regional Overview 53
Competitive Landscape 59
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 59
Demographic Forecast 60
Demographic Outlook 60
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 61
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 61
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sector-Specific Methodology 66

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