Poland Infrastructure Industry Update Quarter 1 2012

  • November 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 89 pages

BMI View: We maintain our long-held view that the Polish construction market was poised for a slowdown in H211 which will continue well into 2012. In fact, our core scenario envisages considerably slower annual average growth over the next five years as the segment reels from the after-effects of a surge in investment ahead of the UEFA Euro 2012 football tournament.
Although the Polish construction segment posted impressive 16% year-on-year (y-o-y) real growth during H111 (according to data released by the Central Statistics of Poland), we attribute this to the last minute rush in construction activity – mostly on existing projects – ahead of the Euro 2012 football tournament. It is our view that this trend will not have been sustained in H211 and is unlikely to continue into 2012 – as most contracts near completion. In addition, due to the fact that the ongoing slowdown in Germany will dampen investor sentiment, we restrict our 2011 and 2012 real growth projections to 4.1% and 2.9% respectively. Consequently, we anticipate 3.2% y-o-y real growth for the construction market as a whole.

Key growth drivers include:
- Euro 2012 preparations: The tournament has boosted planned investment into the transport segment, specifically airports, roads and railways. In addition, the construction of stadia, hotels and related tourism infrastructure has buoyed the residential and non-residential building subsector.
However, with the tournament drawing closer and the artificial stimulus it has created coming to an end, we anticipate a lull in activity from 2012 and beyond.
- Road building programme: Poland's road building programme, running from 2007 to 2015, is expected to draw US Dollar 60bn of investment into the segment . The programme has been a blessing for European construction majors and Poland's largest builders over the past 24 months, which have faced depleted contract opportunities in other core European industries.
- EU Cohesion funds: The EU has allotted substantial funding for Poland's infrastructure segment in an effort to integrate the country into the EU's transport and energy networks. Geographically placed between Eastern and Western Europe, it is hoped Poland will act as a bridge between the two.
The substantial activity seen across Poland's construction segment has positioned the country as a safehaven for construction industry players over the past 24 months. Europe's largest players, including Skanska, Strabag, Hochtief and Bouygues, and building materials providers such as Lafarge, all saw orderbook growth in Poland in 2009 and 2010. Poland's local construction industry players – Budimex (a unit of Spain's Ferrovial) and Mostostal Warszawa – continue to benefit from positive investor sentiment with regard to the Polish construction sector, having bagged new projects in 2011 (for more information please see the individual industry player profiles).
Meanwhile, there is also significant growth potential for public private partnerships (PPPs). The deal between InterHealth Canada and the county of ?ywiec in southern Poland – to build and manage a PLN200mn (US Dollar 63mn) hospital – is the country's first healthcare PPP project. Although investors will need to be prepared for delays and added costs, particularly during the procurement phase, the relative success of Turkey's health PPP programme over the last 18 months could act as a blueprint for the evolution of a similar industry in Poland.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Infrastructure Industry Environment and Risk Analysis 7

Industry Analysis . 8
Poland .. 8
Data : Assets Sales*. 9
Building Materials .. 11
World . 11
China To Remain Demand Driver; Developed Industries Offer Little Support . 11
Europe 18
Short-term Weakness, But Recovery In Place . 18

Market Projection Scenario 23
Data : Poland Construction And Infrastructure Market Data, from 2008 to 2016 23
Data : Poland Construction And Infrastructure Market Data, 2013-2021 24
Transport Infrastructure . 27
Data : Poland Transport Infrastructure Market Data, from 2008 to 2016 27
Data : Poland Transport Infrastructure Market Data, 2013-2021 28
Transport Infrastructure Projection Scenario 30
Transport Infrastructure Overview .. 32
Key Projects Data - Transport .. 37
Data : Major Infrastructure Projects -- Transport 37
Energy And Utilities .. 42
Data : Poland Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Market Data, from 2008 to 2016 .. 42
Data : Poland Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Market Data, 2013-2021 .. 43
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Projection Scenario .. 45
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview . 46
Key Projects Data - Energy And Utilities. 50
Data : Major Infrastructure Projects - Energy and Utilities 50
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 54
Data : Poland Residential and Non-Residential Building Market Data, from 2008 to 2016 54
Data : Poland Residential and Non-residential Building Market Data, 2013-2021 . 54
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Projection Scenario 55
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure Overview.. 56
Special Events .. 59
Euro 2012 . 59
Data : Euro 2012 Stadia . 60

Environment Overview 61
Poland Business Environment. 61
Rewards .. 61
Risks . 61
Regional Overview 63
Data : Regional Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings .. 67
Company Monitor 68
Budimex .. 68
Mostostal Warszawa . 71
Skanska Poland 74
World Overview .. 77
Infrastructure Finance In 2012: Deja Vu? 77
Methodology .. 83

Market Projection s 83
Construction Market .. 84
Data Methodology . 84
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 84
Construction . 85
Capital Investment . 86
Construction Segment Employment 87
Infrastructure Business Environment Rating .. 88
Data : Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators . 89

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