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Russia Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 92 pages

BMI View

: The Russian petrochemicals industry managed to report strong growth in H115 in spite ofworsening economic fundamentals due to its ability to defend margins on lower product prices and increaseits domestic market share. The fall in the cost of locally available naphtha feedstock as well as the slump inthe value of the rouble helped boost the competitiveness of Russian output, even as end markets went intorecession. However, 2016 is set to be more challenging with producers expecting a decline in sales andproduction.Russian producers reported double digit growth across a variety of petrochemicals segments, with plasticsand rubber witnessing notably strong growth. The trend has fuelled domestic self-sufficiency, even aspetrochemicals exports to Europe have slumped in the face of trade sanctions and the Ukraine crisis as wellas the domestic economic recession.

Table Of Contents

Russia Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Production 14
Consumption 19
Table: Russia - Petrochemicals Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2019 20
Macroeconomic Forecast 22
Economic Analysis 22
Table: RUSSIA - Private Consumption Forecasts 26
Table: RUSSIA - Government Consumption Forecasts 27
Table: RUSSIA - Fixed Capital Formation Forecasts 27
Table: RUSSIA - Net Exports Forecasts 28
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 29
Russia and Ukraine Under Pressure 32
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (scores out of 100) 33
Russia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index 34
Market Overview 36
Government policy 37
Table: Cracker Capacity Data - Historical Data and Forecasts ('000 tpa) 42
Industry Trends And Developments 44
Petrochemicals 44
Fertiliser 49
Upstream 50
Company Profile 52
Sibur Holding 52
Table: Financial Highlights (RUBmn, Unless Stated Otherwise) 56
Lukoil 57
Table: Financial Results (USDmn) 61
Nizhnekamskneftekhim (NKNK) 62
Table: Financial Results (RUBmn) 64
Regional Overview 65
Energy Prices And Greek Crisis Will Determine Margins 65
Delays and Mothballing in the East 67
Global Industry Overview 73
Feedstock Differentials: Respite for Europe 73
2016 Feedstock Outlook 75
Could US Gas Run out? 76
Market Outlook: Chinese Downturn 77
Long-term Outlook 77
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride 81
Demographic Forecast 82
Demographic Outlook 82
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 83
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 83
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 84
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 84
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 85
Glossary 87
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 87
Methodology 88
Industry Forecast Methodology 88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 90
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 91
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 92

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