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Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: As demand for skilled workers in Bulgaria outpaces supply, wages will continue to rise over thenext five years. With substantial levels of urbanisation and ever improving transport networks locally andinternationally Bulgaria has an easily accessible and increasingly affluent consumer target market.However country rewards remain poor and the continued decline of the population size presents risk forretailers.Opportunities for retail growth will be limited in the medium term to 2019. A lack of impetus to continuewith political and economic reforms will dampen investors' enthusiasm, and economic growth is forecast tobe sluggish, at 1.0% this year, not rising above 2.0% until after the end of our forecast period. Bulgaria'sshaky financial system is under strain as a result of exposure to Greek banks as well as past bankruptcies,including the default by Corporate Commercial Bank in 2014. Even though Bulgaria's public debt is thesecond smallest in the EU (27.6% of GDP in 2014; only Estonia has a lower rate), it is struggling to balanceits budget. The parliament was seeking to approve the issue of EUR8bn of bonds over the next three years.Fitch approved new Issuer Default Ratings for Bulgaria in June 2015, assessing its long-term foreigncurrency debt with BBB- and local currency debt with BBB with a stable outlook. Such ratings may preventthe country from borrowing cheaply in the next five years.

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 18
Retail Sector Forecast 20
Food And Drink 21
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 21
Clothing And Footwear 22
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 22
Household Goods 23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast 25
Table: Household Income Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 25
Table: Labour Market Data (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 27
Demographic Forecast 29
Table: Total Population (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Babies (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Young People (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Urban (Bulgaria 2012-2019) 34
Macroeconomic Forecasts 35
Economic Analysis 35
Industry Risk Reward Index 38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 38
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 38
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Market Overview 42
Mass Grocery Retail 42
Shopping Centres 43
E-Commerce 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Food And Drink 45
Clothing And Footwear 46
DIY 46
Consumer Electronics 47
Glossary 48
Methodology 55
Industry Forecast Methodology 55
Sources 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 58
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 61

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