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Croatia Retail Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

BMI View: Croatia's economy has finally emerged from a six-year long recession; however, economic conditions have yet to fully recover. Retailers should only expect to see significant improvements during the second half of our forecast period. The country continues to struggle with high levels of unemployment and relatively lacklustre economic growth and this will ensure that opportunities remain somewhat limited. Despite this, Croatia is still home to numerous retail expansion and consolidation opportunities in the long term. Croatia's economy is on the road to recovery. Having contracted for six consecutive years, the country's real GDP is on track to post 0.3% growth in 2015 and we forecast this to improve to 1.0% by 2016, the first signs of growth during its membership within the EU.

While more reassuring expansion is projected for the rest of the forecast period, Croatia will have to grapple with major structural economic problems in order for the retail industry to expand. The high levels of unemployment remain perhaps one of the biggest hurdles for the retail industry. The rate stands at 17.0% (rising to as many as 45.0% for young people). As a result, real household incomes have stagnated, with many young people depending either on the state or on their parents for income. Young adults are typically a lucrative market segment for retailers, however in Croatia, this demographic group offer limited opportunities for sales growth.

Table Of Contents

Croatia Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (Croatia 2012-2019) 14
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Croatia 2012-2019) 16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Croatia 2012-2019) 16
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Croatia 2012-2019) 17
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food, Drink and Tobacco 19
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Croatia 2012-2019) 20
Clothing and Footwear 21
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Croatia 2012-2019) 21
Household Goods 21
Table: Household Goods Spending (Croatia 2012-2019) 22
Personal Care and Effects 23
Table: Personal Care Spending (Croatia 2012-2019) 23
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 24
Table: Household Income Data (Croatia 2012-2019) 24
Table: Labour Market Data (Croatia 2012-2019) 27
Demographic Forecast 28
Table: Total Population (Croatia 2012-2019) 29
Table: Population: Babies (Croatia 2012-2019) 29
Table: Population: Young Children (Croatia 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Children (Croatia 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Croatia 2012-2019) 30
Table: Population: Young People (Croatia 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Croatia 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Croatia 2012-2019) 31
Table: Population: Young Adults (Croatia 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Croatia 2012-2019) 32
Table: Population: Urban (Croatia 2012-2019) 32
Macroeconomics 33
Economic Analysis 33
Table: Economic Activity (Croatia 2010-2019) 39
Industry Risk/Reward Index 40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 40
Croatia Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 42
Market Overview 44
Competitive Landscape 47
Glossary 51
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sources 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 61
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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