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Romania Retail Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Following its IMF bailout in 2009, Romania quickly found a way to recovery. Now the countryhas one of the best GDP and household income growth outlooks amongst the 28 EU countries. Romania's21mn people market is among the largest and least saturated in the CEE. As the management of publicfinances improves and wages rise, the country will be among the most rewarding destinations forinvestments into the retail sector in the region.Strong economic growth will allow Romania to continue catching up with the rest of the EU countries in2015. We forecast the country's real GDP to expand by 3.6% this year. While a part of this forecast can beattributed to a low inflation rate of -0.1%, the expansion of the country's output cannot be downplayed. TheRomanian Ministry of Finance forecasts that the country's GDP will be rapidly catching up with the EUaverage: from 54% in 2015 to around 70% in 2010.

Both domestic and foreign investors demonstrate theirconfidence in Romania's potential to solve its systemic problems, including corruption, emigration andpoverty. The middle class is emerging in Romania, driven by the growing layer of young urbanprofessionals who exhibit brand-consciousness and diverse spending patterns. The number of households inthe USD10,000+ income bracket will double in the next four years indicating growthopportunities unparalleled by EU standards. As measured by household spending, the retail market isprojected to expand by 33% between 2015 and 2019, driven especially by non-food sub-sectors whosegrowth will be driven by rising consumer confidence.

Table Of Contents

Romania Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Retail SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Industry Forecast 13
Headline Retail Forecast 13
Table: Total Household Spending (Romania 2012-2019) 14
Table: Total Household Spending (Romania 2012-2019) 15
Table: Total Household Spending (Romania 2012-2019) 16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Romania 2012-2019) 17
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Romania 2012-2019) 17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Romania 2012-2019) 18
Retail Sector Forecast 19
Food and Drinks 21
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Romania 2012-2019) 22
Clothing and Footwear 22
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Romania 2012-2019) 23
Household Goods 23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Romania 2012-2019) 24
Personal Care 25
Table: Personal Care Spending (Romania 2012-2019) 25
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (Romania 2012-2019) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (Romania 2012-2019) 30
Demographic Forecast 31
Table: Total Population (Romania 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Babies (Romania 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Children (Romania 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Children (Romania 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Romania 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Young People (Romania 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Romania 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Romania 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Young Adults (Romania 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Romania 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: Urban (Romania 2012-2019) 36
Macroeconomic Forecast 37
Economic Analysis 37
Table: Economic Activity (Romania 2010-2019) 42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 43
Romania Risk/Reward Index 44
Rewards 44
Risks 45
Market Overview 47
Competitive Landscape 50
Mass Grocery Retail 50
Fashion 51
DIY 52
Consumer Electronics 52
Glossary 53
Methodology 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sources 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

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