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Russia Retail Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 67 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Russian economy remains in recession as a result of international sanctions triggeringsignificant monetary deflation. Together with the knock-on effect on inflation in the country and the rapiddecline of oil prices reducing government revenues, Russia has seen investment levels stall and the countryrisk profile deteriorate. The current climate will see reduce growth forecasts across the retail space until2017 and retailers will be faced with tough headwinds over this period.Instead of a widely anticipated recovery, Russia's economy fell into the deepest recession since 1998. Thelocal currency stopped falling against the US dollar and the euro and oil prices stabilised at the lowest levelsince 2009.

There are few indicators which could suggest that either one will start increasing again beforemid-2016. The Russian middle class was and will be hit the hardest: in USD terms, net income perhousehold decreased by 11.7% in 2014 and is forecast to plunge even further by 31.4% in 2015. Retailersbegan adjusting shelf prices to rouble's value in the international market, making imported productssignificantly less affordable for the Russian middle class. A large share of groceries and non-food productconsumption has remained buoyant by households exchanging and using their foreign currency reserves(keeping some US dollar savings has been widespread among Russian households since the breakup of theSoviet Union), however, they are dissipating at an alarming rate.

Table Of Contents

Russia Retail Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Political 12
Economic 13
Industry Forecast 14
Headline Retail Forecast 14
Table: Total Household Spending (Russia 2012-2019) 16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Russia 2012-2019) 17
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Russia 2012-2019) 18
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Russia 2012-2019) 19
Retail Sector Forecast 20
Food, Drinks and Tobacco 21
Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Spending (Russia 2012-2019) 22
Clothing and Footwear 22
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (Russia 2012-2019) 23
Household Goods 23
Table: Household Goods Spending (Russia 2012-2019) 24
Personal Care and Effects 25
Table: Personal Care Spending (Russia 2012-2019) 25
Household Numbers and Income Forecast 26
Table: Household Income Data (Russia 2012-2019) 27
Table: Labour Market Data (Russia 2012-2019) 30
Demographic Forecast 31
Table: Total Population (Russia 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Babies (Russia 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Young Children (Russia 2012-2019) 33
Table: Population: Children (Russia 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Russia 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Young People (Russia 2012-2019) 34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Russia 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Russia 2012-2019) 35
Table: Population: Young Adults (Russia 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Russia 2012-2019) 36
Table: Population: Urban (Russia 2012-2019) 36
Macroeconomic Forecasts 37
Economic Analysis 37
Table: RUSSIA - Private Consumption Forecasts 41
Table: RUSSIA - Government Consumption Forecasts 42
Table: RUSSIA - Fixed Capital Formation Forecasts 42
Table: RUSSIA - Net Exports Forecasts 43
Industry Risk Reward Index 44
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q116 44
Russia - Risk/Reward Index 45
Rewards 45
Risks 46
Market Overview 48
Competitive Landscape 51
Shopping Centres 51
Mass Grocery Retail 51
Fashion 52
Home Improvement 53
Pharmacies and Personal Care 53
Glossary 54
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 67

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