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Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 58 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


>BMI View:
We maintain our core forecast for the Bulgarian telecommunications market and have not made significant revisions in this quarterly update. We retain our view that there will be very limited organic growth in mobile market subscription figures out to 2020. The market will witness growth in terms of 3G/ 4G uptake as data usage surges in the country and this trend is expected to continue throughout the course of our forecast period. Mobiltel's recent acquisition of fixed services provider Blizoo will further boost the operator's competition with fixed services giant Vivacom. This will benefit consumers as it will lead to the introduction of a wider range of products and services over faster networks. Telenor, the third player in the market, will have to become more dynamic in terms of competition and product offerings. We do not presently see any real opportunities for the new fourth mobile operator, Max Telecom.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- Bulgarian regional broadband provider Cooolbox (ITD Network) launched a direct fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) service for residential subscribers in the towns of Plovdiv and Veliko Turnovo.

- Businessman Spas Rusev acquired major telecommunications operator Vivacom in November 2015 for an estimated EUR330mn. The new owner also agreed to clear the EUR400mn debt from the company's balance sheet. The deal was ratified in January 2016 and will allow the company to bundle a broad range of services together.

- Mobile subscription growth will steadily slow over the 2017-2020 period as market saturation offers fewer organic customer addition opportunities; rather, there will be a slow improvement in subscriber mix in favour of post-paid services. The market ended Q2 2016 with a total mobile subscriber figure of 10.636mn, representing a q-o-q decline of 0.2% and a y-o-y decline of 3.5%. The penetration rate fell to 149.9%. We believe that the discount of inactive prepaid connections in the market is responsible for the recent sporadic declines in the market.

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2020) 13
Telecoms Risk/Reward Index 14
CEE Risk/Reward Index 14
Table: Central And Emerging Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q1 2017 17
Bulgaria Risk/Reward Index 18
Market Overview 20
Market Drivers and Trends 20
Mobile 20
Wireline Voice and Broadband 24
Table: Vivacom Wireline Data (2014-2016) 26
Table: Mobiltel Wireline Data 27
Pay-TV/Convergence 27
Table: Cable And Satellite Dominate Pay-TV Market, IPTV Figures High In Bundles 27
Regulatory Development 29
Industry Risks 29
Main Developments: Operator Gains and 2 66GHz Spectrum Auction Planned 30
Additional Developments 31
Competitive Landscape 32
Table: Key Players: Bulgaria Telecoms Sector 32
Table: Mobile Market Overview 32
Table: Mobiltel 32
Table: Telenor 34
Table: Vivacom 36
Company Profile 39
Mobiltel (M-Tel) 39
Vivacom 43
Demographic Forecast 47
Demographic Outlook 47
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 48
Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 48
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 49
Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 49
Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025) 50
Glossary 52
Table: Glossary Of Terms 52
Methodology 54
Industry Forecast Methodology 54
Sources 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 56
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58

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