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Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 126 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:

Brazil’s vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term, underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will rise over the next decade. However, production growth will be tempered by declining investment funds from Petrobras and continued headwinds from the corruption scandal and continued political fallout following the impeachment.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts



- On September 20, Brazilian national oil company (NOC) Petrobras released its highly-anticipated five year Business and Management Plan (BMP) for 2017-2021, the first under its more business-friendly CEO Pedro Parente. Significant financial strain and heightened regulatory uncertainty, combined with prolonged oil price weakness, resulted in further reductions to its development strategy, cutting planned capex by an additional 24.7% versus its 2015-2019 plan.

- Petrobras posted a BRL16.5bn (USD4.9bn) third quarter loss on November 10. The loss was driven by a BRL15.3bn impairment on its assets and a BRL417.0mn writedown of its investments. The results disappointed analyst expectations of a BRL1.5bn profit and threaten downside pressure on the share price. However, we believe the outlook on Petrobras remains broadly positive from a multi-year perspective though significant risks remain.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Brazil - Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive) 32
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 32
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 33
Upstream Production - Gas 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 37
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 37
Refining 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Brazilian Refineries 40
Table: US Renewable Fuel Volumes 42
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Brazil 2014-2019) 42
Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Brazil 2020-2025) 43
Refined Fuels Consumption 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 47
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) 47
Gas Consumption 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 48
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2014-2019) 52
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2020-2025) 52
Trade - Oil 53
Crude Oil Trade Forecast 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2020) 55
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 55
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 56
Latest Updates 56
Structural Trends 56
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 58
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 59
Latest Updates 59
Structural Trends 59
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2014-2019) 62
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2020-2025) 62
Industry Risk Reward Index 63
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 63
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 63
Composite RRI: Weaker Prices Extend Traditional Rankings 64
Upstream RRI: Sector Nearing Significant Change 65
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 66
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Extend Capacity Deficit 68
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 70
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index 71
Upstream Index 71
Downstream Index 72
Market Overview 74
Brazil Energy Market Overview 74
Overview/State Role 74
Licensing And Regulation 75
Licensing Rounds 76
International Energy Relations 79
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 81
Oil Refineries 81
Table: Brazil - Total Refining Capacity 81
Service Stations 86
Oil Terminals/Ports 86
Oil Pipelines 86
LNG Terminals 86
Gas Pipelines 88
Competitive Landscape 91
Table: Brazil - Total Crude Production By Company, 2015 91
Table: Brazil - Total Natural Gas Production By Company, 2015 92
Company Profile 93
Petrobras 93
Table: BMP Main Assumptions 95
Shell Brasil 99
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 100
Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn 101
Repsol 102
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 103
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 103
Statoil do Brasil 104
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 105
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 105
Chevron Brasil 106
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Brazil 107
Table: Key Financial Data (USDbn) 107
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo 108
Table: Current Upstream Assets 109
Table: Key Financial Data, USDbn 109
Regional Overview 110
Latin America Overview 110
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 117
Glossary 119
Table: Glossary Of Terms 119
Methodology 121
Industry Forecast Methodology 121
Source 123
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 123
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 125
Table: Weighting 126

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