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  5. > Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 169 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Brazil's vast pre-salt reserves suggest substantial growth potential over the long term,underpinning our bullish upstream view that crude, natural gas, and other liquids output will risethroughout our forecast period. However, production growth will be limited by lower oil prices anddecreased capex funds. As such, we maintain a relatively modest outlook, reflecting our view that theabove-ground environment remains a considerable obstacle to the upstream and downstream segments dueto weakening project economics, waning investor confidence, and a burdensome regulatory environment.The key trends and developments in the Brazilian oil and gas sector are:

- Brazil's 13th licensing round on October 7 was an outright disappointment, with only 37 of 266 blocksawarded. This was the worst turnout of any round over the past decade as existing international marketparticipants including Shell, Total, and Statoil refrained from participating, supporting our more modestreserve growth outlook.

- On October 5, Petrobras announced a USD11bn reduction to its Business and Management Plan (BMP)impacting spending over 2015 and 2016. In the wake of continued above-ground challenges, we expectthe national oil company (NOC) will be forced to reassess its unchanged production targets over the nextseveral quarters.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT ... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration .. 11
Latest Updates ... 11
Structural Trends ... 11
Table: Breakdown Of Onshore Reserves . 14
Table: Breakdown of Offshore Reserves 15
Upstream Projects ... 17
Table: Brazil Key Upstream Projects . 17
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Latest Updates ... 24
Structural Trends ... 24
Table: List Of Recently Completed FPSO Conversion/Construction Projects (Non-Exhaustive) . 31
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2013-2018) . 32
Table: Oil Production (Brazil 2019-2024) . 32
Upstream Production - Gas ... 33
Latest Updates ... 33
Structural Trends ... 33
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2013-2018) . 36
Table: Gas Production (Brazil 2019-2024) . 36
Refining . 37
Latest Updates ... 37
Structural Trends ... 37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2013-2018) 42
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Brazil 2019-2024) 42
Refined Fuels Consumption ... 43
Latest Updates ... 43
Structural Trends ... 43
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2013-2018) . 46
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Brazil 2019-2024) . 46
Gas Consumption 47
Latest Updates ... 47
Structural Trends ... 47
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2013-2018) 50
Table: Gas Consumption (Brazil 2019-2024) 50
Trade - Oil . 51
Latest Updates ... 51
Structural Trends ... 51
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2019) . 52
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024) . 53
Latest Updates ... 53
Structural Trends ... 53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018) . 54
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024) . 55
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) . 56
Latest Updates ... 56
Structural Trends ... 56
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2013-2018) 59
Table: Gas Net Exports (Brazil 2019-2024) 59
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 60
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index . 60
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100 60
Upstream RRI: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom 62
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100 . 63
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics .. 65
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100 . 67
Brazil - Risk/Reward Index 68
Market Overview ... 71
Brazil Energy Market Overview . 71
Overview/State Role .. 71
Licensing And Regulation 71
Licensing Rounds . 73
International Energy Relations . 76
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 78
Oil Refineries 78
Table: Refineries In Brazil . 78
Service Stations . 83
Oil Terminals/Ports 83
Oil Pipelines . 83
LNG Terminals .. 83
Gas Pipelines 84
Competitive Landscape 87
Summary .. 87
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil And Gas Sector 89
Company Profile 90
Petróleo Brasileiro .. 90
Shell Brasil ... 103
Repsol . 111
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo . 115
Chevron Brasil .. 117
Ultrapar Participações (Grupo Ultra) ... 120
BG do Brasil . 124
BP Brasil . 128
Statoil do Brasil 133
Oleo and Gas Participacoes/OGX Brazil .. 138
Other Summaries ... 141
Regional Overview .. 151
Latin America Overview . 151
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade . 161
Glossary ... 162
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 162
Methodology 164
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 164
Source ... 166
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 166
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 168
Table: Weighting 169

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