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  5. > Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 134 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Colombia's energy sector is nearing an inflection point. While the past decade has witnessed strong production growth due to improvements in the business and security environment, we caution that the country will experience downward pressure on oil production over the longer term. The tendency toward smaller finds, as well as recent increases in pipeline attacks have begun to show signs of decreased investor interest in Colombia's resources, as witnessed in the 2014 licensing rounds. Furthermore, sustained lower oil prices have threatened the development of upstream and downstream projects by both national and international investors. Given ongoing below and above-ground challenges, we maintain a cautious stance toward the future of Colombia's hydrocarbon productivity.

The key trends and developments in the Colombian oil and gas sector are:
- Continued progress at the bilateral peace talks between the government and insurgent rebels have provided a temporary boost to output. However, lower oil prices have maintained downside pressure on
upstream activity.
- The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) announced a 25% reduction in tax rates for some offshore drillers in addition to being exempt from value added taxes (VAT). This policy hopes to incentives
further offshore drilling and development off of Colombia's Caribbean coast, however we caution that this is unlikely to materially change activity levels amid a broad industry downturn.
- The modernised Refineria de Cartagena SA (Reficar) is expected to reach full capacity in Q116. This will add 85,000 b/d of downstream capacity which will service growing domestic demand over the next
several years.

Table Of Contents

Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Colombia 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends .. 11
Upstream Projects .. 15
Table: Colombia Key Upstream Projects 15
Upstream Production - Oil 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends .. 23
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2013-2018) 29
Table: Oil Production (Colombia 2019-2024) 29
Upstream Production - Gas .. 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends .. 29
Table: Gas Production (Belgium 2013-2018) . 32
Refining . 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends .. 32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2013-2018) 34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Colombia 2019-2024) 34
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends .. 35
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2013-2018) . 37
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Colombia 2019-2024) . 37
Gas Consumption 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends .. 38
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2013-2018) 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Colombia 2019-2024) 40
Trade - Oil 41
Crude Oil 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends .. 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2013-2019) . 43
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Colombia 2019-2024) . 43
Refined Products 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends .. 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2013-2018) 44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Colombia 2019-2024) 45
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) .. 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends: . 45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2013-2018) . . 49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Colombia 2019-2024) . . 49
Industry Risk Reward Index 50
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index . 50
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100 . . 50
Upstream RRI: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom .. 52
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100 53
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics . 55
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100 . . 57
Colombia Risk/Reward Index 58
Colombia Upstream Index - Overview .. 58
Colombia Upstream Index - Rewards 58
Colombia Upstream Index - Risks . 59
Colombia Downstream Index - Overview . 59
Market Overview 61
Colombia Energy Market Overview 61
Overview/State Role . 61
Licensing And Regulation 62
Table: Royalty Rates 63
International Energy Relations .. 67
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 68
Refineries 68
Table: Refineries In Colombia . . 69
Service Stations . 70
Oil Terminals/ Ports . 70
Oil Pipelines .. 71
LNG Terminals .. 74
Gas Pipelines . 75
Competitive Landscape . 76
Competitive Landscape Summary 76
Table: Key Players - Colombian Oil and Gas Sector . 77
Company Profile . 78
Chevron . 78
Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) 82
ExxonMobil Colombia 90
Occidental . 93
Pacific Exploration and Production 97
Perenco .. 101
Sinochem 103
Other Summaries .. 106
Regional Overview . 116
Latin America Overview . 116
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 126
Glossary 127
Table: Glossary Of Terms . . 127
Methodology .. 129
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 129
Source .. 131
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 131
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 133
Table: Weighting . . 134

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