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Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 100 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We maintain our downbeat outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector, despite vast belowground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PdVSA. We expect Venezuela to underperform, given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financial situation of PdVSA. Sustained weakness in global oil prices will deteriorate production growth prospects as PdVSA and international investors face declining revenues and a limited amount of available capex funds.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts



- Venezuela will remain in a deep recession over the coming quarters as a result of low oil prices and severe macroeconomic mismanagement. While gradually rising oil prices will temper the depth of the recession over the coming quarters, substantial improvements will depend on the implementation of wide-ranging reforms.

- Crude production declines accelerated over the course of 2016 H116, with direct communication data from OPEC showing a decline to 2.32mn b/d in August, a 12.1% decline over last year. Secondary sources report that output fell to 2.1mn b/d, with YTD production averaging 2.21mn b/d, the lowest average measurement for the country in 25 years.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q1 2017
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Venezuela - Key Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 22
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 22
Upstream Production - Gas 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 27
Refining 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2020-2025) 32
Refined Fuels Consumption 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019) 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025) 34
Gas Consumption 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019) 37
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Oil 37
Crude Oil: Latest Updates 37
Crude Oil: Structural Trends 38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2020) 42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 42
Refined Products: Latest Updates 43
Refined Products: Structural Trends 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019) 45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 46
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019) 49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025) 49
Industry Risk/Reward Index 50
Latin America - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 50
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index 50
Composite RRI: Weaker Prices Extend Traditional Rankings 51
Upstream RRI: Sector Nearing Significant Change 52
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index 53
Downstream: NOC Dominance Will Extend Capacity Deficit 55
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index 57
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index 58
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview 58
Downstream Index - Overview 59
Market Overview 60
Venezuela Energy Market Overview 60
State Role 60
Licensing And Regulation 61
Government Policy 61
International Energy Relations 62
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 68
Oil Refineries 68
Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela 68
Oil Pipelines 71
LNG Terminals 72
Gas Pipelines 72
Competitive Landscape 74
Competitive Landscape Summary 74
Table: Key Upstream Players 74
Table: Key Downstream Player 74
Company Profile 75
PDVSA 75
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela 76
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 76
Chevron 78
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela 79
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 79
Repsol Venezuela 80
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela 81
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 81
Total Venezuela 82
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela 83
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 83
Regional Overview 84
Latin America Overview 84
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 91
Glossary 93
Table: Glossary Of Terms 93
Methodology 95
Industry Forecast Methodology 95
Source 97
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 97
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 99
Table: Weighting 100

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