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New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 41 pages

BMI View: We believe that increased access to international markets, particularly Taiwan and China, willprove to be the prime growth driver for the agribusiness sector in New Zealand over the medium-to-longterm. This will be supportive for both the dairy and livestock segments. The dairy sector in particular willbenefit from export demand growth, as many other countries in Asia are facing growing domestic demandand relatively limited production capacity. However, the dairy sector will suffer over the short term due tolow prices on the international market. We believe prices will pick up again in 2016.

Key Trends

- Milk production growth to 2018/19: 3% to 23.5mn tonnes. Given the small domestic consumptionbase and the high productivity of the sector, long-term expansion will mainly come from exportopportunities, particularly to Asia and the Middle East, which are forecast to enjoy significant dairyconsumption growth over our forecast period.

- Milk powder production growth to 2018/19: 13% to 1.6mn tonnes. Across all the dairy segments,export opportunities (particularly to China) will be the main growth drivers over the medium term.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.5%, same as 2014. Forecast to average 2.4% between 2015 and 2019.

Table Of Contents

New Zealand Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Agribusiness 7
Industry Forecast 9
Dairy Outlook 9
Table: New Zealand - Liquid Milk Production and Consumption Outlook 9
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (New Zealand 2012-2020) 10
Commodities Price Analysis 12
Global Commodities Strategy 12
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 12
Upstream Analysis 14
Asia GM Outlook 14
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 17
Asia Machinery Outlook 18
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (Cnybn) 21
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 21
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 24
Regional Overview 29
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops 33
Demographic Forecast 35
Table: Population Headline Indicators (New Zealand 1990-2025) 36
Table: Key Population Ratios (New Zealand 1990-2025) 36
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (New Zealand 1990-2025) 37
Table: Population By Age Group (New Zealand 1990-2025) 37
Table: Population By Age Group % (New Zealand 1990-2025) 38
Methodology 40
Industry Forecast Methodology 40
Sector-Specific Methodology 41

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