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  3. > Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • November 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: All agricultural markets will be negatively affected by the poor macroeconomic fundamentals inUkraine. There will be limited investment into the country over the coming quarters given the unstablesituation, which will affect agricultural production over our forecast period. Russia's ban on imports fromUkraine will weigh on production for the dairy and livestock industries, as Russia represents one ofUkraine's largest agricultural export markets. Furthermore, significant currency depreciation will limitimports, hitting input usage and domestic investment. However, Ukrainian farmers will fail to benefit fromthe export opportunities linked to this weaker currency due to export restrictions and lack of resources toscale up production in the medium term.

Key Forecasts

-Corn production contraction 2013/14 to 2018/19: 12.6% to 27.0mn tonnes. Corn production willgrow from 2016/17 onwards, but the sharp contractions in output in 2014/15 and 2015/16 will mean itwill not come close to matching the record output of 2013/14.

-Poultry consumption growth 2014 to 2019: 10.9% to 946,200 tonnes. Poultry demand will benefitfrom the recovery in corn production and its preferred status as a cheaper and healthier alternative to redmeat.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Ukraine - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 16
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 16
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 16
Dairy Outlook 17
Table: Ukraine - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 21
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 21
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 21
Livestock Outlook 22
Table: Ukraine - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 26
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 26
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Ukraine 2011-2019) 26
Commodity Price Analysis 27
Global Commodities Strategy 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 27
Upstream Analysis 29
Europe GM Outlook 29
Europe Machinery Outlook 35
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 38
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 41
Downstream Analysis 48
Food 48
Food Consumption 48
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 49
Confectionery 49
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 50
Prepared Food 51
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Ukraine 2012-2019) 51
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Ukraine 2012-2019) 52
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 53
Dairy 53
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019) 54
Regional Overview 57
Competitive Landscape 63
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 63
Demographic Forecast 64
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025) 65
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025) 65
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025) 66
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025) 66
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025) 67
Methodology 69
Industry Forecast Methodology 69
Sector-Specific Methodology 70

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