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Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Malaysia's agribusiness sector is experiencing challenging times, as its most emblematic sector, the palm oil industry, is undermined by low prices and growing structural challenges. The cocoa sector is in an even worse position, suffering a severe decline after the stellar performance of the 1990s. The cocoa processing sector is facing increasing competition from Indonesia and is losing market share at a fast pace. The medium term outlook is brighter, amidst strong growth prospects in the poultry sector and opportunities for value added palm based oleochemical exports. Malaysia will have to remain ahead of its biggest competitor, Indonesia, if its agribusiness sector is to stay afloat. As such, the next challenge for the country resides in the economic integration of ASEAN. The ASEAN Economic Community will present some opportunities, for example for poultry exports. However, it also poses risks to the future of the sugar refining sector.


Key Forecasts
- Palm oil production growth to 2018/19: 8.1% to 21.8mn tonnes. Growth will be supported as companies replant mature estates and yields improve on the back of better technology.
- Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 18.2% to 1.6mn tonnes. After a decade of strong growth, we forecast poultry meat production to grow at a moderate pace in the coming years, as rising production
costs are undermining the development of the sector. Malaysia will maintain a fragile self-sufficiency in poultry.
- Cocoa consumption growth to 2019: -16.4% to 217,000 tonnes. Cocoa processing in Malaysia is on the decline, due to the drop in domestic cocoa bean supply and increased grinding competition from Indonesia, which has emerged as a leading processed cocoa exporter at the expense of Malaysia.

Table Of Contents

Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT . 10
Agribusiness . 10
Industry Forecast .. 12
Palm Oil Outlook 12
Table: Malaysia - Palm Oil Production And Consumption Outlook . . 13
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook . 13
Table: Palm Oil Production and Consumption (Malaysia 2011-2019) . 20
Sugar Outlook .. 21
Table: Malaysia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook . . 21
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Sugar Outlook . 22
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Malaysia 2011-2019) . 25
Cocoa Outlook . 26
Table: Malaysia - Cocoa Production And Consumption Outlook . . 26
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Cocoa Outlook . 27
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Malaysia 2011-2019) . 30
Livestock Outlook 31
Table: Malaysia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook . . 31
Table: Malaysia - Risks To Livestock Outlook 32
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Malaysia 2011-2019) 35
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Malaysia 2011-2019) 35
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Malaysia 2011-2019) 35
Commodity Price Analysis 36
Global Commodities Strategy 36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts . 36
Upstream Analysis 38
Asia GM Outlook . 38
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 41
Asia Machinery Outlook 42
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (Cnybn) 45
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares . 45
Asia Fertiliser Outlook .. 48
Downstream Analysis . 53
Food .. 53
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Malaysia 2012-2019) 55
Confectionery . 55
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Malaysia 2012-2019) . . 56
Fish .. 56
Oils And Fats . 57
Dairy 58
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Malaysia 2014-2019) 58
Regional Overview 59
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops . . 63
Competitive Landscape . 65
Table: Main Agribusiness Players . 65
Demographic Forecast .. 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Malaysia 1990-2025) . 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Malaysia 1990-2025) . . 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Malaysia 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group (Malaysia 1990-2025) . 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Malaysia 1990-2025) . 70
Methodology . 72
Industry Forecast Methodology . 72
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 73

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