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Australia Metals Report Q1 2015

  • October 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 60 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
Australia will see subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals as a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak. We expect a slowdown in the metals industry in Australia on the back of slowing demand in China. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in 2015 and beyond. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), have embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and eclining steel prices.

Table Of Contents

Australia Metals Report Q1 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT .. 9
Metals SWOT . 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate . 11
Table: Steel Production and Consumption (Australia 2010-2018)15
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Australia 2005-2012). . . 15
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 .. 16
Table: Aluminium Production and Consumption (Australia 2010-2018).. 19
Nickel: Weak Prices To Restrain Output Growth . 20
Table: Refined Nickel Production and Consumption (Australia 2010-2018). 23
Regulatory Development .. 24
Tax Regime 24
Table: Australia - Political Summary.25
Commodities Forecast .. 26
Commodity Strategy .. 26
Ferrous Metals . 27
Non-Ferrous Metals: 30
Aluminium: Prices To Remain Elevated Following Recent Dip .. 30
Copper: Chinese Weakness To Create Further Headwinds .. 31
Nickel: No Sustained Rally Ahead . 33
Zinc: Subdued Short-Term Outlook Before Multi-Year Gains .. 36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts. 37
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016 .. 38
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast 38
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months) 38
Long-Term Outlook . 39
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite 40
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon . 41
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last .. 42
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery 43
Risks To Price Forecast 43
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts . . 44
Competitive Landscape . 45
Australia To Remain World Leader for Investment .. 45
Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers. . 46
Company Profile . 47
Rio Tinto .. 47
Company Overview . 49
Company Strategy 50
Latest Financial Results .. 51
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data. . 53
BHP Billiton 54
Latest Financial Results .. 56
Table: BHP Billiton - Supply Chain Analysis.. . . 58
Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data . 59
Methodology . 60
Cross Checks 60

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