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Brazil Defence and Security Report 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 34 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect Brazilian defence expenditure to contract in 2016 amid the recession; however, itwill remain at around 1.3% of GDP, and return to growth over the medium term as economic conditionsimprove. Defence spending will be driven by factors such as the country's efforts to reduce crime levels,prevent illegal activities in the Amazon, and contribute to international peacekeeping missions. Brazil hasthe largest defence budget in the Latin America region, and is able to invest significantly into procurementof military equipment and defence R&D. This enables the domestic defence sector to continue to develop,increasing export potential, and gradually allowing it to capture a large share of the Brazilian MoD'sprocurement contracts. Over the long term, therefore, we expect defence exports to grow at a faster pacethan imports.

Recent Developments

- We expect a second year of defence expenditure contraction in 2016 amid a worsening recession, asconsumers face headwinds stemming from a poor labour market and the fixed investment declinecontinues.

- Over the medium-to-long term, meanwhile, with economic conditions allowing defence spending togrow, we expect the Brazilian defence ministry to address a range of its armed forces' requirements toreplace ageing equipment. This modernisation effort is likely to involve purchases of new militaryaircraft, armoured vehicles, warships, submarines and C4 equipment.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Defence Expenditure 9
Table: Defence Expenditure (Brazil 2014 - 2019) 9
Table: Defence Expenditure (Brazil 2020 - 2025) 10
Armed Forces 11
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Brazil 2006 - 2013) 12
Defence Trade 13
Exports 13
Imports 13
Industry Risk Reward Index 14
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 14
Table: Latin America - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 14
Rewards 14
Risks 15
Market Overview 16
Brazil Defence Market Overview 16
Domestic Defence Sector 16
Domestic Defence Market 21
Table: Defence Agreements 24
Brazil Security Overview 25
Domestic Threats 25
Regional Threats 26
International Threats 27
Company Profile 28
Avibras Indústria Aerospacial SA 28
Embraer 29
Forjas Tauras 31
Methodology 32
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 32
Sector-Specific Methodology 33
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 33
Weighting 34
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 34

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