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China Metals Report 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 35 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's metals industry will face headwinds from both low metal prices and Beijing's pledge toslash overcapacity in heavy industry, which will threaten the survival of many high-cost metal producers.China will continue to drive the supply glut in both the global steel and aluminium market. This willtranslate into elevated exports from the country over the coming quarters.Aluminium

- We have revised down our average aluminium price forecast for 2016 to USD1,575/tonne. Althoughprices will bottom in Q415-Q216, production will outstrip consumption until 2018 and anchor prices. Inparticular, cheap Chinese exports will keep the market well supplied.
- Chinese production has remained robust in 2015, driven by expansion in the North-West of the country.Primary output grew by 15.2% in the first nine months of the year, according to Bloomberg. We expectthis growth to slow substantially in the coming quarters and forecast output to grow by 8.0% in 2016,

Table Of Contents

China Metals Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: China Mining Industry Value 5
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 5
SWOT 7
Metals SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Aluminium: North-West To Sustain Industry Growth 9
Latest Developments 9
Table: Aluminium Production and Consumption (China 2011-2019) 10
Structural Trends 10
China - Steel: Production To Contract Until At Least 2019 15
Latest Developments 15
Table: China Steel Forecast 15
Table: Select Countries - Imposed Import Duties Against Chinese Steel 19
Regulatory Development 22
Commodities Forecast 24
Commodities Outlook 24
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 24
Competitive Landscape 25
Table: China - Steel Producers By Share Of Production (%), 2013 26
Table: China - Largest Listed Metal Producers 27
Company Profile 29
Baoshan Iron and Steel - Q116 29
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q1 2016 30
Company Overview 32
Latest Financial Results 33
Table: Supply Chain Analysis 33
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data 34
Methodology 35
Cross Checks 35

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