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Colombia Defence and Security Report 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

BMI View: We expect Colombia's defence budget to decrease in 2015 in absolute terms, due to theeconomic slowdown the country is experiencing. As the war on drugs continues, however, and as Colombiais seeking to gain an international stance in relation to security and defence, the share of defence spendingas part of GDP will be maintained at 3.7%. We expect defence spending will resume its increase in 2016 forthe rest of the forecasting period to 2019, driven by the government's desire to develop and expand itsdomestic defence sector.

As a result of weaker trade dynamics (especially in the oil production sector), weakening consumerconfidence and increasing unemployment, Colombia is currently experiencing an economic slowdown. Thiswill have an impact on the country's defence budget, which is set to fall to USD11.6bn in 2015. However,since the war on drugs is still very much ongoing, and Colombia retains a need to maintain well-trained andwell-equipped armed forces, we expect that the share of the defence budget as part of GDP will remain at3.7%.

Table Of Contents

Colombia Defence and Security Report 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Colombia Defence SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 13
Industry Forecast 15
Defence Expenditure 15
Table: Defence Expenditure (Colombia 2012-2019) 17
Armed Forces 18
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Colombia 2005-2012) 18
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Colombia 2012-2019) 20
Defence Trade 20
Exports 22
Table: Defence Exports (Colombia 2012-2019) 22
Imports 23
Table: Defence Imports (Colombia 2012-2019) 24
Macroeconomic Forecasts 25
Economic Analysis 25
Table: Colombia - Key Economic Indicators 25
Table: Colombia - Private Consumption Forecasts 28
Table: Colombia - Government Consumption Forecasts 29
Table: Colombia - Fixed Investment Forecasts 30
Table: Colombia - Net Exports Forecasts 30
Latin America Security Risk Index 31
Colombia Security Risk Index 31
Table: Latin America Security Risk Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 32
Market Overview 34
Colombia Defence Market Overview 34
Domestic Defence Sector 36
Table: Defence Cooperation Agreements 37
Colombia Security Overview 38
Domestic Threats 38
Regional Threats 39
International Threats 40
Weapons of Mass Destruction 40
Regional Overview 41
Latin America Security Overview 41
Challenges And Threats To Security 41
The Role Of Outside Powers 53
Global Industry Overview 55
Political Risk Analysis 55
Methodology 60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 60
Sector-Specific Methodology 61
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 61
Weighting 62
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 62

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