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Colombia Defence and Security Report 2016

  • November 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 27 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


>BMI View:
Colombian military expenditure will see only a modest decrease in 2016 amid the government's ongoing fiscal consolidation measures. However, defence spending will increase more robustly over the medium-to-long term, reflecting persistent security threats posed by tensions with neighbouring countries (namely Venezuela) and the ongoing fight against drug trafficking and related crime. We expect defence expenditure to remain stable at around 3.6% of GDP over the coming years. Colombia will maintain a large defence trade deficit for the foreseeable future, given the highly underdeveloped state of its local defence sector. The government is seeking to improve this trade balance through the development of the local defence sector; however, efforts are somewhat constrained by a limited defence budget. Latest Updates:

- The Colombian government is continuing its fiscal consolidation programme into 2016, and consequently we do not expect strong growth in the defence budget this year. However, the country's Minister of Defence Luis Carlos Villegas has announced an increase in resources for the defence sector in the 2017 budget. The minister estimated that the defence budget would reach USD330bn in 2017.

- While Colombians rejected the peace deal between the FARC and government in October's referendum, we believe both sides remain committed to the reconciliation process, and expect the ceasefire to hold in the medium term. That said, risks of hard-line factions of the FARC breaking away and continuing to fight are elevated - and will rise further the longer peace negotiations are dragged out. In any case, security risks will remain high in Colombia in the years ahead, as there are numerous armed groups active throughout the regions now being abandoned by the FARC - many of which are poised to gain control of lucrative drug trafficking routes as they are vacated.

Table Of Contents

Colombia Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (Colombia 2016-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Defence Industry SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Defence Expenditure 9
Table: Defence Expenditure (Colombia 2014-2019) 9
Table: Defence Expenditure (Colombia 2020-2025) 10
Defence Trade 11
Industry Risk Reward Index 13
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 13
Table: Latin America - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 13
Rewards 13
Risks 14
Market Overview 15
Defence Market Overview 15
Domestic Defence Sector 15
Domestic Defence Market 16
Armed Forces Overview 16
Armed Forces 17
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Colombia 2008-2013) 17
Security Overview 18
Domestic Threats 18
Regional Threats 19
Company Profile 21
INDUMIL 21
COTECMAR 22
Methodology 23
Industry Forecast Methodology 23
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 24
Sector-Specific Methodology 26
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 26
Weighting 27
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 27

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