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Iran Metals Report 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 46 pages

BMI View:
Iran's improving relationship with the West should provide a platform for the expansion of the country's metals sector as it strives to meet ambitious production forecasts. We expect the lifting of sanctions to facilitate increased production of steel, aluminium and other industrial metals, however, we note that the country continues to face a number of challenges, namely a weak infrastructure framework and the continued expansion of foreign export sectors.

Currently the largest producer in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and among the 15 largest producers in the world, Iran's steel industry is set to continue expanding at a steady pace over the next few years. as Tehran targets near self-sufficiency in terms of it consumption of steel and other industrial metals. The Comprehensive Steel Plan, announced in 2013, plans to raise Iran's steelmaking capacity from 20 million tonnes per annum (mntpa) in 2012 to 55mntpa by 2025. On current evidence, the country is steadily working towards this goal with total crude output estimated to have risen by 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 to 16.3mn tonnes (mnt) before accelerating to around 15% y-o-y during the first two months of 2015. Tehran is also aiming to triple the country's aluminium smelter capacity to 1.5mntpa.

Table Of Contents

Iran Metals Report 2015
BMI Industry View ... 5
SWOT 7
Metals SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Steel: Improving Relations To Support Growth 9
Table: Steel Production and Consumption (Iran 2012-2019)....................... 14
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Iran 2006-2013).......................14
Regulatory Development .. 16
Corruption 16
Tax Regime ... 16
Table: Iran - Political Overview.............................. 17
Commodities Forecast . 18
Commodity Strategy . 18
Ferrous Metals .. 18
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years ... 18
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices . 20
Non-Ferrous Metals ... 23
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn 23
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade . 25
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue .. 26
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth . 27
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices 28
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead 29
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts...................... . . 31
Commodities Forecast .. 31
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast.............................. 31
Market Balance: Declining Surpluses In Years Ahead ... 35
Table: Steel Forecasts................................ . . 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Table: Production and Sales By Producer (2013).......................... 40
Table: Middle East - Largest Listed Metal Producers........................ . . 42
Company Profile 44
Mobarakeh Steel Company 44
Methodology .. 46
Cross Checks 46

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