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Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 107 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite continued progress in negotiations between the rival Libyan governments, the country'ssecurity and political outlook remains heavily clouded. This in turn will continue to dampen upstreamproduction growth, due to the repeated targeting of oil and gas infrastructure; damage to wellhead,processing and export facilities; a lack of essential maintenance works; and chronic underinvestment in thesector. Exports will see a similarly slow recovery, with revenues further undercut by persistently low globalcommodity prices. The outlook on the downstream is equally bearish, with poor refining efficiencies andcontinued feedstock issues severely undermining overall utilisation rates.

Key Trends & Latest Updates:

- Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside riskto our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of theconflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over thecoming years.

- Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instabilityand unattractive fiscal and licensing terms. However, we expect greater exploration in the prospectiveoffshore plays. Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect thisdynamic to continue into 2016. However, incremental improvements in the political and security outlookwill support a y-o-y gain in crude and condensates output, averaging 517,000b/d.

Table Of Contents

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2013-2018) 20
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2019-2024) 21
Upstream Production - Gas 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2013-2018) 24
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2019-2024) 24
Refining 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2013-2018) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2019-2024) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2013-2018) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2019-2024) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2013-2018) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2019-2024) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Crude Oil 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2013-2019) 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024) 38
Refined Fuels 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018) 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024) 39
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2013-2018) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2019-2024) 43
Industry Risk/Reward Index 44
Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Table: BMI's Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 47
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 50
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 50
Libya - Risk/Reward Index 52
Upstream Rewards 52
Upstream Risks 52
Downstream 53
Market Overview 54
Libya Energy Market Overview 54
Regulatory Structure 54
Licensing Regime 55
Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms 55
Fiscal Regime 55
Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms 55
Licensing Rounds 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: Libya Oil Refineries 56
Oil Terminals 56
Table: Libya Oil Terminals 56
LNG Terminals 57
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya 57
Oil and Gas Pipelines 57
Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines 57
Competitive Landscape 58
Competitive Landscape Summary 58
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil and Gas Sector 59
Table: Key Upstream Players 60
Company Profile 61
ConocoPhillips 61
Eni North Africa 65
Marathon Oil 70
National Oil Corporation (NOC) 74
OMV Of Libya 78
Repsol Libya 82
Total Libya 85
Other Summaries 88
Regional Overview 92
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 92
Glossary 100
Table: Glossary Of Terms 100
Methodology 102
Industry Forecast Methodology 102
Source 104
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 104
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 106
Table: Weighting 107

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