Pakistan Autos Industry Update Quarter 1 2011

  • December 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 68 pages

Pakistan produced a total of 218,300 vehicles in fiscal year 2009/10 (July to end June), up 32.2% from
165,158 in fiscal year 2008/09, according to figures from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers
Association (PAMA). The 2009/10 aggregate production figure is inclusive of 121,647 passenger cars,
3,425 trucks (category 1), 628 buses, 4,053 trucks (category 2), 1,172 jeeps, 15,768 pick-ups and 71,607
tractors. Meanwhile, revenues of new vehicles in 2009/10 registered 221,720 units, inclusive of 123,957
passenger cars, 3,620 trucks (category 1), 657 buses, 4,277 trucks (category 2), 1,201 jeeps, 16,496 pickups
and 71,512 tractors. The aggregate 2009/10 revenues represented a rise of 36% year-on-year (y-o-y).
Production largely mirrors revenues in Pakistan’s auto industry .
However, while the vehicle revenues and production figures in 2009/10 may have appeared impressive in
percentage y-o-y terms, they were less impressive when viewed against historical figures (and a very low
2008/09 base). Political turmoil in Pakistan, in tandem with the global economic downturn, delivered a
double whammy to car revenues and production in the country over FY08/09. Sales of new vehicles in
Pakistan fell 34% y-o-y during that fiscal year. The 163,479 new vehicles sold in Pakistan in 2008/09
compared very unfavourably with the 247,160 in fiscal year 2007/08 – and, of course, the 2009/10
aggregate revenues figure remained considerably below the 2007/08 base. Meanwhile, production of new
vehicles in FY2008/09 was down 33% y-o-y, from the 247,036 units produced in FY2007/08. As with
sales, the year 2007/08 remains a high watermark for vehicle production in Pakistan’s car market , as
aggregate production in 2009/10 remained nearly 12% below the level of two years earlier.
The start of FY10/11 saw new car revenues fall by 31.6% month on month (m-o-m), to 9,796 units in July, as
customers felt the impact of a rise in General Sales Tax (GST) and with heavy flooding causing
displacement of people and severe disruption to business across the country. However, this poor monthly
performance did not mark the start of a negative trend, with August revenues up by 9% y-o-y (to 19,625
units), September revenues up by 6% y-o-y (to 10,405) and October revenues up by 17% y-o-y (at 11,911).
All told, the first nine months of 2010 have seen a total of 117,052 passenger car units sold. Over the
same period, passenger car production stands at 111,554 units.
This upwards revenues trend has come as a surprise to most market analysts, who had expected a
combination of a weak rupee and falling income and demand from flood-affected areas to have sent car
sales lower. It may be, however, that with the Pakistan rupee and consumer demand both set to remain
weak into 2011, customers are choosing to buy new cars now, for fear that they will continue to increase
in price over the coming months. Certainly, local media have speculated that this is what car dealerships
have been doing, buying cars in at current prices to hedge against future likely price rises.
Against this backdrop of higher-than-anticipated car revenues in recent months, BMI has made an upwards
revision to its projections for passenger car revenues for 2010 (calendar year). We now believe that a total of
around 138,155 cars will be sold, representing a rise of 25% y-o-y. This revision has also led to a
slight increase in our revenues and production projections for future years as well.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis .... 7
Pakistan Auto Industry Environment and Risk Analysis .... 7
Pakistan Political Environment and Risk Analysis .. 8
Pakistan Economic Environment and Risk Analysis 9
Regional Overview . 10
Good Growth Prospects Up For Grabs In ASEAN Industry s .... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Environment Overview Ratings . 13
Data : Business Environment Ratings - Auto Market Asia Pacific . 16

Market Projection Scenario ... 17
Production And Sales .. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Pakistan Automotives - Production .... 17
Pakistan Automotives - Sales ... 17
Trade 19
Pakistan Automotives - Exports/Imports . 19
Macroeconomic Projection .... 20
Data : Pakistan - Economic Activity .. 23

Competition Overview ... 24

Industry Analysis .. 24
Passenger Cars 24
Pakistan - Production And Sales By Brand (CBUs) .... 24
Segment Developments ... 26
Motorcycles 27
Pakistan Automotive Segment - Production And Sales Of Motorcycles, By Make (CBUs) 27
Commercial Vehicles . 28
Pakistan - Commercial Vehicle Sales (CBUs) ... 28
Suppliers 29
Company Monitor ... 30
Company Profiles ... 33
Indus Motor 33
Honda Atlas 35
Pak Suzuki Motor .. 36
BMI Methodology ... 38
How We Generate Our Market Projections ... 38
Sources .. 39

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