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China Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

The Chinese petrochemicals industry was already witnessing a slowdown in H115, but the yuandevaluation and the stock market crash will have a significant effect on activity over the near term. Theexport boost gained through devaluation will be offset by slackening domestic demand and long-standingissues of over-capacity in some segments, particularly in the light of mounting environmental concerns,could result in project delays, lower capacity utilisation and potentially some plant closures.China's economic troubles are set to cause multiple problems for the petrochemicals industry. The fall in thevalue of the yuan will saddle Chinese businesses with significant foreign-exchange losses at a time of risingdebt burdens and slowing growth. Low global interest rates and tight domestic credit conditions haveprompted Chinese firms to borrow from abroad and the yuan's decline has merely added to the cost ofservicing US dollar denominated debt. The accounting loss is unlikely to have an immediate effect on cashflow, but when debt matures and needs paying down, there could be significant problems if the yuan doesnot regain its value.

Table Of Contents

China Petrochemicals Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT 8
Political . 10
Economy 11
Operational Risk . 12
Industry Forecast .. 14
Demand ... 15
Production 16
Table: China's Petrochemicals Sector ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated), 2011-2019 19
Macroeconomic Forecasts ... 20
Economic Analysis ... 20
Table: Economic Activity (China 2010-2019) 23
Industry Risk/Reward Index . 24
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index ... 24
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Ranking 27
Market Overview ... 28
Regulations ... 30
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Upstream .. 33
Table: Refineries In China With Over 200,000b/d Capacity . 34
Unconventional Gas Development . 36
Coal-Based Chemicals 37
Sinopec 40
PetroChina .. 42
CNOOC .. 42
Aromatics And Derivatives . 42
Company Profile 44
China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) . 44
PetroChina . 49
Table: PetroChina Financial Results (CNYmn) 52
Regional Overview 54
Asia Overview . 54
Chinese Crackers Spark Concern as Crisis Blazes 55
A Rocky Surge in 2016 57
Global Industry Overview .. 60
Feedstock Differentials: Respite for Europe 60
2016 Feedstock Outlook .. 62
Could US Gas Run out? .. 63
Market Outlook: Chinese Downturn .. 64
Long-term Outlook . 64
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride 68
Demographic Forecast . 69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (China 1990-2025) 70
Table: Key Population Ratios (China 1990-2025) . 70
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (China 1990-2025) . 71
Table: Population By Age Group (China 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group % (China 1990-2025) . 72
Glossary . 74
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms . 74
Methodology .. 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 77
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators 78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 79

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