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Iran Defence and Security Report 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 54 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The removal of most sanctions against Iran facilitates a return to economic growth;however, recovery will be slow, and Tehran's military spending will therefore remain modest on a regionalcomparison in the short- to medium-term. That said, demand for defence equipment will stay strong, as Irancontinues to provide assistance to Shi'a groups across the region; seeks to narrow the gap to rival SaudiArabia's more technologically advanced military; and invests in weapons systems to protect against apotential US/Israeli attack. Meanwhile, the government remains committed to achieving its goal of militaryself-sufficiency, and will likely seek offsets through any defence import deals over the coming decade.Externally, Russia and China appear best placed to capture large shares of the Iranian defence market overour forecast period to 2025, as arms embargoes still remain in place for Western suppliers.

Latest Updates

- Iran has ordered S-300PMU1/2 systems from Russia under a USD1bn contract, which after beingcancelled in 2010, was reactivated following the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015. According toRussian media reports in December 2015, delivery is underway and will be completed by September2016.

- Iranian officials stated in February 2016 that the country was set to receive an undisclosed number of thelatest-generation Sukhoi Su-30 combat aircraft. Washington announced in April 2016 that it would useits veto in the UN Security Council to block any such sale, but Moscow stated shortly after that no suchveto could be applied. Under the current UN resolution on Iran, the UN's conventional arms ban againstthe country will remain in force for five years from October 2015 - or until the IAEA submits a reportconfirming Iranian compliance to the nuclear deal. Without such as report, Iran would not be able toreceive the Su-30s before 2020.

- Iran is reportedly interested in procuring Russian T-90 tanks - for which Moscow proposed a locallicense-build agreement in late-2015.

- In April 2016, Iran deployed its regular army on its first overseas mission since the 1979 IslamicRevolution, in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces.

Table Of Contents

Iran Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (Iran 2015-2020) 7
SWOT 10
Industry Forecast 12
Defence Expenditure 12
Table: Defence Expenditure (Iran 2014-2019) 13
Table: Defence Expenditure (Iran 2020-2025) 14
Defence Trade 15
Table: Iran - Bilateral Defence Agreements 17
Industry Risk Reward Index 19
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 19
Table: Middle East and North Africa - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 19
Rewards 20
Risks 20
Market Overview 22
Defence Market Overview 22
Domestic Defence Sector 22
Domestic Defence Market 25
Armed Forces Overview 27
Armed Forces 27
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Iran 2008-2013) 28
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Iran 2016-2025) 28
Security Overview 30
Domestic Threats 30
Regional Threats 33
International Threats 37
Company Profile 38
China Great Wall Industry Corporation 38
Sukhoi 40
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant 42
Aerospace Industries Organization 43
Ammunition and Metallurgy Industries Group 45
Defence Industries Organization 46
Iran Electronics Industries 48
Methodology 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 51
Sector-Specific Methodology 53
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 53
Weighting 54
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 54

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