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Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • January 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 138 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The APC administration will partially reduce crude theft and instability in the NigerDelta, marginally improving production consistency We do not expect the PIB to be passed over thecoming one to two years This will see continued regulatory uncertainty in Nigeria, supporting our view fora stagnation in oil output over the coming years Nigerian oil production will increase slightly from 245mnbarrels per day (b/d) in 2016 to 251mn b/d by 2020, based on sanctioned projectsThe main trends and developments we highlight for Nigeria's oil and gas sector are as follows:

- A decline in proven oil reserves demonstrates the impact of lower levels of exploration activity in thecountry since 2005 Exploration will remain slow without significant improvements in regulatorycertainty and the security situation
- The All Progressives Congress (APC) administration will partially reduce crude theft and instability inthe Niger Delta, marginally improving production consistency We do not expect the Petroleum IndustryBill (PIB) to be passed over the coming one to two years This will see continued regulatory uncertaintyin Nigeria, supporting our view for a stagnation in oil output over the coming years However we doacknowledge some upside risk to the PIB passing earlier if the bill is split up as was recently suggestedby Ibe Kachikwu, the Junior Petroleum Minister

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Nigeria 2013-2019) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Nigeria 2013-2018) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Nigeria 2019-2024) 12
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Upstream Project Database 15
Upstream Production - Oil 20
The New Buhari Administration 24
Table: Oil Production (Nigeria 2013-2018) 25
Table: Oil Production (Nigeria 2019-2024) 25
Upstream Production - Gas 27
Factors Hampering Gas Production 28
Table: Gas Production (Nigeria 2013-2018) 29
Table: Gas Production (Nigeria 2019-2024) 29
Refining 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Nigeria 2013-2018) 35
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Nigeria 2019-2024) 36
Refined Fuels Consumption 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Nigeria 2013-2018) 39
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Nigeria 2019-2024) 39
Gas Consumption 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Gas Consumption (Nigeria 2013-2018) 43
Table: Gas Consumption (Nigeria 2019-2024) 43
Trade - Oil 44
Crude Oil 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends 44
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Nigeria 2013-2019) 48
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Nigeria 2019-2024) 49
Refined Fuels 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Nigeria 2013-2018) 51
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Nigeria 2019-2024) 51
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 52
Table: Gas Net Exports (Nigeria 2013-2018) 55
Table: Gas Net Exports (Nigeria 2019-2024) 55
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 56
Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 56
Table: BMI's Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 56
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 59
Table: BMI's Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 59
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 62
Table: BMI's Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 62
Nigeria - Risk/Reward Index 64
Market Overview 66
Nigeria Energy Market Overview 66
Overview/State Role 66
Fiscal Regime 67
Table: Nigeria- Fiscal Terms 67
Table: Nigeria- Licenses And Contract Terms 68
The New Buhari Administration 68
Licensing Rounds 70
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 71
Oil Refineries 71
Oil Terminals/Ports 72
LNG Terminals 73
Gas Pipelines 73
Competitive Landscape 74
Competitive Landscape Summary 74
Table: Key Players - Nigerian Oil and Gas Sector 75
Table: Nigeria Upstream Players 76
Table: Nigeria Downstream Players 76
Company Profile 77
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) 77
Afren 82
ExxonMobil 86
Eni 91
Total 97
Chevron 103
Royal Dutch Shell 109
Other Summaries 115
Regional Overview 123
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 123
Glossary 131
Table: Glossary Of Terms 131
Methodology 133
Industry Forecast Methodology 133
Source 135
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 135
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 137
Table: Weighting 138

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