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Russia Real Estate Report 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Rental rates and occupancy levels are both expected fall over the course of 2016, following apoor performance in 2015. We expect demand from foreign players to remain low and barriers to entry toremain high. The main catalysts for the downward trend across most of the real estate market are the weakeconomy and trade sanctions. Weak GDP figures and falling income levels are restricting consumerspending, and reducing the attractiveness of the Russian market to new players. We do not forecast a majorturn-around over the course of our forecast period to 2020.We expect only a modest recovery in GDP in 2016 as consumers remain under pressure, from both thesharp depreciation in the rouble and elevated inflation. Declining fiscal revenues mean the government willstruggle to prop up the economy and we do not expect government consumption to be a significant driver ofgrowth. We maintain our forecast for the Russian economy to grow by 0.5% in 2016, and have downgradedour 2017 real GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.6%.

Table Of Contents

Russia Real Estate Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Operational Risk 14
Industry Forecast 16
Office Forecast 16
Table: Office Rental Rates, 2010-2016 (per square metre per month) 19
Table: Office Yields, 2010-2020 (%) 20
Retail Forecast 22
Table: Retail Rental Rates, 2010-2016 (per square metre per month) 25
Table: Rental Yields, 2010-2020 (%) 26
Industrial Forecast 28
Table: Industrial Rental Rates, 2010-2016 (per square metre per month) 31
Table: Rental Yields, 2010-2020 (%) 32
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview 34
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2014-2024) 34
Government Policies To Support Housing Market 40
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects 41
Table: Key Projects: Construction and Social Infrastructure 41
Macroeconomic Forecasts 42
Economic Analysis 42
Industry Risk/Reward Index 49
Risk/Reward Index 49
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Real Estate Risk/Reward Index 49
Rewards 49
Risks 50
Market Overview 51
Competitive Landscape 53
Property Developers 53
Property Managers 55
Demographic Forecast 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 59
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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