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Libya Defence and Security Report 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 32 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Libyan defence expenditure will expand over the next five years; although growth is startingfrom a low base, and as such, the overall size of the defence budget remains small on a global scale. Weexpect political instability to be the norm over the coming years and rising Islamist militancy will createdemand for military equipment across the ground, air and naval segments. However, major purchases willbe delayed over the medium term due to severe financial constraints, the ongoing restructuring of theLibyan armed forces and the reluctance of the international community to allow arms deliveries into Libya'shighly fragile security environment.

Latest Updates

- There has been a de-escalation in fighting following the formation of the Government of National Accord(GNA) in April 2016; however, the Tobruk government has thus far refused to be merged into the GNA.

- In April 2016, the Tobruk government continued with its own oil sales - bypassing the GNA - withpayments deposited abroad. The move is seen as an attempt to divert revenues away from Tripoli.

- The Islamic State (IS) beheaded 12 people near Sirte in August 2015, which prompted Egyptian andEmirati forces to carry out airstrikes against the group within Libyan territory.

- Italy called for a UN intervention in Libya in Q116, offering to contribute 2,000 troops to an internationalforce to tackle IS.

- The Libyan National Army reportedly took delivery of four Sukhoi Su-27 fighter aircraft from anundisclosed country in November 2015.

- In April 2016, President Barack Obama and the leaders of Germany, France, Britain and Italy, discusseda joint maritime mission off the coast of Libya to tackle arms smuggling and refugee flows.

- Libya requested approval from the UN Security Council in February 2016 to import tanks, fighter jets,attack helicopters, ammunition, assault rifles and grenade launchers from Ukraine, Serbia and CzechRepublic. The request was put on hold indefinitely by the UN.

Table Of Contents

Libya Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Defence Expenditure (Libya 2015-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Defence Expenditure 9
Table: Defence Expenditure (Libya 2014-2019) 10
Table: Defence Expenditure (Libya 2020-2025) 10
Defence Trade 12
Table: Libya - Bilateral Defence Agreements 14
Industry Risk Reward Index 15
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 15
Table: Middle East And Africa - Defence Industry Risk/Reward Index 15
Rewards 16
Risks 17
Market Overview 18
Defence Market Overview 18
Domestic Defence Sector 18
Domestic Defence Market 19
Armed Forces Overview 21
Armed Forces 21
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Libya 2006-2013) 21
Security Overview 23
Domestic Threats 23
Regional Threats 26
International Threats 27
Methodology 29
Industry Forecast Methodology 29
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 30
Sector-Specific Methodology 31
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 31
Weighting 32
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 32

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