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Turkey Defence and Security Report 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates



BMI View: We maintain our forecast for steady growth in Turkish defence spending throughout ourforecast period to 2025 - facilitated by robust forecast real GDP growth - and driven by still-elevated risksof terrorism, separatism and political unrest. Coupled with strong government support and evolvinginternational trade and industry collaboration partnerships, this will ensure continued development andexpansion of Turkey's already-substantial defence sector - and thus Turkish defence exports - over thecoming decade.Recent Analysis & Developments

- The failed coup on July 15-16 will substantially raise long-term political risks in Turkey. PresidentErdogan will use the occasion to tighten his grip on power, but this is likely to lead to political overreacheventually, prompting a backlash. Meanwhile, Erdogan's moves will accelerate Turkey's drift away fromthe West.

- In June 2016, IS carried out a terrorist attack at Istanbul's international airport, killing over 40 people. Weexpect the dual threat of Kurdish separatists and IS to remain elevated in Turkey over the next severalyears.

- Turkish government rhetoric against Assad appears to have softened in recent months, and in July 2016,Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim hinted at the possibility of a normalisation of ties to Damascus.This can be seen in the context of a broader foreign policy shift by Ankara, which has also worked toimprove ties to Russia and Israel.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Defence Expenditure (Turkey 2015-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Defence Industry SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Defence Expenditure 11
Table: Defence Expenditure (Turkey 2014-2019) 11
Table: Defence Expenditure (Turkey 2020-2025) 12
Defence Trade 13
Table: Turkey - Bilateral Defence Agreements 15
Industry Risk Reward Indices 16
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Rewards 17
Risks 18
Market Overview 19
Defence Market Overview 19
Domestic Defence Sector 19
Domestic Defence Market 22
Armed Forces Overview 25
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Turkey 2008-2015) 25
Current Deployments 26
Table: Turkish Armed Forces - Overseas Deployments 26
Security Overview 28
Domestic Threats 28
Regional Threats 29
International Threats 31
Company Profile 33
Aselsan 33
Havelsan 35
MKEK 37
Tübitak - Sage 38
Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) 39
Methodology 41
Industry Forecast Methodology 41
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 42
Sector-Specific Methodology 44
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 44
Weighting 45
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 45

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