Germany Commercial Banking Industry Update Quarter 1 2012

  • November 2013
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other markets on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes industry elements that are specific to the banking market of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the industry elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the industry elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the industry elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking segment is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the industry elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking segment is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the industry elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the segment, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary. 5
Data : Levels (EURbn) 5
Data : Levels (US$bn) 5
Data : Levels At August 2011 . 5
Data : Annual Growth Rate Projections from 2011 to 2015 (%) .. 6
Data : Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Data : Projected Levels (EURbn) . 6
Data : Projected Levels (US$bn) .. 6
Industry SWOT Analysis .. 7
Germany Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Germany Political Environment and Risk Analysis .. 8
Germany Economic Environment and Risk Analysis .. 8
Germany Business Environment SWOT . 9

Environment Overview Outlook . 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 10
Data : Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 10
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology . 10
Data : Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 12
World Commercial Banking Outlook. 13
Data : Banks’ Bond Portfolios. 21
Data : Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 22
Data : Comparison of Loan/Deposit and Loan/Asset and Loan/GDP ratios . 22
Data : Anticipated Developments In 2012 . 23
Data : Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, from 2010 to 2011 (US$bn) .. 23
Data : Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2011f (US$) . 24
Data : Interbank Rates And Bond Yields. 24
Europe Banking Segment Outlook 25
Germany Banking Segment Outlook 28
Economic Outlook . 33
Data : Gross Domestic Product By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, from 2008 to 2016 .. 36

Competition Overview . 37
Market Structure 37
Protagonists.. 37
Data : Protagonists In Germany’s Commercial Banking Segment . 37
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe.. 37
List Of Banks. 38
Data : Top 50 Banks By Assets 38
Company Profiles .. 40
Deutsche Bank . 40
Data : Stock Industry Indicators 42
Data : Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated) . 42
Germany Commercial Banking Report Q1 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Data : Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 43
Data : Key Ratios (%).. 43
Commerzbank .. 44
Data : Stock Industry Indicators 45
Data : Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated) . 45
Data : Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 46
Data : Key Ratios (%).. 46
HypoVereinsbank 47
Data : Stock Industry Indicators 48
Data : Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated) . 48
Data : Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 49
Data : Key Ratios (%).. 49
DZ Bank.. 50
Data : Stock Industry Indicators 51
Data : Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated) . 51
Data : Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 51
Data : Key Ratios (%).. 52
KfW 53
Data : Key Statistics For KfW, from 2007 to 2008 (EURmn) 54
Deutsche Postbank. 55
Data : Stock Industry Indicators 56
Data : Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated) . 56
Data : Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 57
Data : Key Ratios (%).. 57
UniCredit Bank AG 58
Banking Segment Methodology. 59
Commercial Bank Business Environment Ratings.. 60
Data : Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale. 61
Data : Weighting Of Indicators 62

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