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Mongolia Mining Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 60 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Mongolia's mining sector growth will be accelerate on the back of foreign mining investment, arobust infrastructure framework and the country's strategic close proximity to major export markets such asChina. Projects such as Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi mine will significantly increase the country's mining outputover the coming years.

Latest Developments & Trends

- The agreement between the Mongolian government and Rio Tinto with regard to the Oyu Tolgoi miningproject is a positive development for the Mongolian mining sector on a number of levels. In May 2015,the newly formed Mongolian super coalition agreed to proceed with the nearly USD5bn second phaseunderground development of the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine, with an agreement being finalisedbetween Rio Tinto and the cabinet. For the past few years, it has been our core view remains that theexpansion of Oyu Tolgoi will eventually take place.

- Despite calls for greater resource nationalism over the past quarters, we believe the Mongoliangovernment will tone down its anti-foreign investment stance against miners. The government's policypriorities will shift away from the populist tones outlined during the 2013 election campaign, back to amore market-friendly platform. However, anti-foreign investor sentiment amongst the public remains amajor issue, and is the key reason why the government took a more pronounced hard-line stance towardskey foreign investors in the country, notably global mining major Rio Tinto. The split in the supercoalition is a signal that political will power to push through deals is waning. We are not optimistic on theprospects for progress on the Tavan Tolgoi projects as the government is unlikely to want to tackle theissue with an election around the corner.

Table Of Contents

Mongolia Mining Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Mongolia Mining Industry Value . 7
Latest Developments and Trends ... 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast .. 10
Mongolia - Coal: Ready To Tap Into Chinese Demand ... 10
Latest Developments ... 10
Table: Mongolia Coal Production Forecast 10
Table: Mongolia - Select Coal Projects 11
Structural Trends ... 12
Gold: OT Break-through Positive For Growth .. 16
Latest Developments ... 16
Table: Mongolia - Gold Production Forecast 16
Table: Mongolia - Select Gold Projects 16
Structural Trends ... 17
Mongolia - Copper: Good News For Growth Prospects .. 20
Latest Developments ... 20
Table: Mongolia - Copper Mine Production Forecast . 20
Table: Mongolia - Select Copper Mine Projects . 20
Structural Trends ... 21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 23
Mining Risk/Reward Index 23
Rewards ... 23
Industry Rewards ... 23
Country Rewards ... 23
Risks 23
Industry Risks 23
Country Risks 24
Asia - Risk/Reward Index .. 24
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index . 26
Regulatory Development .. 27
Mining Reforms To Lift Exploration 27
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis . 28
Commodities Forecast . 32
Commodities Outlook ... 32
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 32
Competitive Landscape 33
Improving Environment To Attract More Foreign Investment ... 33
Table: Mongolia - Financial Data Of Key Listed Companies 34
Company Profile 35
Centerra Gold . 35
Table: Centerra Gold - Supply Chain Analysis . 37
Latest Results 38
Table: Centerra Gold - Key Financial Data 38
Turquoise Hill Resources .. 39
Latest Results 42
Table: Turquoise Hill - Suppliers . 42
Table: Turquoise Hill - Key Financial Data 43
Rio Tinto - Q1 2016 . 43
Company Overview 45
Company Strategy .. 46
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Projects . 49
Latest Financial Results .. 49
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data . 50
Regional Overview 52
Asia Mining: The Four Key Themes 52
Key Themes .. 52
Australia To Dominate Iron Ore Sector .. 52
Indian Coal Consumption To Remain Solid . 53
Weak Chinese Demand To Keep Prices Low 54
Indonesian Ban Moderation Increasingly Likely ... 55
Methodology .. 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sources 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 60

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