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Poland Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 134 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We have downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing any contribution in growth from shale gas. The slow pace of exploration is unlikely to pick up in the coming years, tempering the development of below-ground understanding and optimised drilling and hydraulic fracturing processes required for Poland's challenging geology. Conventional gas exploration and developments will slowly boost gas production over our forecast period.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Poland's oil and gas sector are:
- We have downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing any contribution in growth from shale gas. Exploration for unconventional gas in Poland has come to a near standstill and is unlikely
to pick up within the next few years.
- While we no longer include shale gas production in our Poland gas production forecast, we continue to highlight the potential of conventional gas exploration and the role it has in boosting Poland's output, as
highlighted by San Leon's recent Rawicz discovery, to be developed within the next one to two years. Conventional developments in Poland will very slowly increase Poland's gas production over our forecast
period.

Table Of Contents

Poland Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Poland 2013-2019) . . 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends .. 11
Oil 11
Gas .. 12
An Improved Above-Ground Environment 13
Shale Exploration Grinds To A Halt . 17
Table: Poland Shale Gas Exploration Licences . . 17
Upstream Projects .. 22
Table: Poland - Major Upstream Projects . 22
Upstream Production - Oil 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends .. 24
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2013-2018) 26
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2019-2024) 26
Upstream Production - Gas .. 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trend 27
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2013-2018) . . 30
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2019-2024) . . 30
Refining . 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends .. 31
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Poland 2013-2018) 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Poland 2019-2024) 33
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends .. 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Poland 2013-2018) 36
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Poland 2019-2024) 36
Gas Consumption 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends .. 37
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2013-2018) 39
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2019-2024) 40
Trade - Oil 40
Crude Oil 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends .. 40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2013-2019) . 42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2019-2024) . 42
Refined Fuels . 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends .. 42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2013-2018) 43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2019-2024) 44
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) .. 44
Latest Updates 44
Structural Trends .. 44
Table: Poland - Alternatives To Direct Russian Imports . . 47
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2013-2018) . . 48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2019-2024) . . 49
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 50
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index .. 50
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward . 50
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 51
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 51
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 54
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market .. 54
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 56
Poland - Risk/Reward Index . 57
Poland Upstream Index - Rewards 57
Poland Upstream Index - Risks .. 58
Poland Downstream Index - Overview . 58
Market Overview 59
Poland Energy Market Overview . 59
Overview/State Role . 59
Fiscal And Licensing Regime Up to 2016 . 59
Table: Poland Fiscal and Licensing Regime . . 59
Shale Gas Specific Licensing, Regulation; Taxation Updates .. 60
Licensing Rounds .. 64
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 64
Oil Refineries . 64
Table: Downstream Projects . 65
Service Stations . 66
Oil Storage Facilities 66
Oil Terminals/Ports .. 67
Oil Pipelines .. 67
LNG Terminals .. 70
Gas Storage Facilities .. 71
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In Poland 72
Gas Pipelines . 72
Competitive Landscape . 75
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 75
Table: Key Players - Poland Oil And Gas Sector 76
Table: Key Upstream Player . 77
Table: Key Downstream Players . . 77
Company Profile . 78
PKN Orlen 78
Grupa Lotos . 88
Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) .. 95
PERN .. 103
BP Polska .. 106
Shell Polska 108
FX Energy .. 110
Other Summaries .. 114
Regional Overview . 119
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 119
Oil Production: Caspian Remains Centre Of Growth . 119
Oil Consumption: Fuels Demand Gradually Strengthening .. 120
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Additions . 121
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up To Feed Red Dragon . 122
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions . 123
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies . 124
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 125
Glossary 127
Table: Glossary Of Terms . . 127
Methodology .. 129
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 129
Source .. 131
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 131
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 133
Table: Weighting . . 134

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