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South Africa Infrastructure Report Q1 2016

  • December 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have downgraded our construction industry real growth forecasts for 2016, which is now2.8% y-o-y. Business sentiment will continue to remain low, seeing a poor outlook for the non-residentialbuilding sector, which has previously been a bright-spot. Rail and renewable energy infrastructure projectsremain our favoured sectors, along with low-cost housing.

Latest Updates An Structural Trends

- We have lowered our real growth forecast for South Africa's construction sector as the downside risks wehighlighted last quarter have taken hold. We now forecast real growth of 2.8% in 2016, average annualgrowth of 2.8% over the next five years and 3% over our 10-year forecast period.

- The ongoing power crisis, strikes by unionised workers, the slowdown in the Chinese economy andmacroeconomic headwinds such as the increasingly hawkish stance of the South African Reserve Bank(SARB), will continue to drag on economic sentiment - hitting the non-residential sector in particular. Weforecast average annual real growth in the residential and non-residential sector of 2.4% over the next tenyears.

- Rail, port and IPP projects (renewables and thermal) will drive our infrastructure forecasts, whichaverage 3.6% over the next ten years.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Infrastructure Report Q1 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (South Africa 2015-2021) 7
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (South Africa) 8
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (South Africa 2014-2024) 11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (South Africa 2014-2024) 19
Transport Infrastructure Outlook 19
Major Projects Table - Transport 27
Table: MAJOR PROJECTS: Transport 27
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 28
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (South Africa 2014-2024) 28
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 29
Table: REIPPP Capacity Target, 2016 32
Major Projects - Energy and Utilities 35
Table: MAJOR PROJECTS: Energy and Utilities 35
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 37
Table: Residential And Non-Residential Building Industry Data (South Africa 2015-2024) 37
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview 38
Table: Planned Special Economic Zones 41
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Building And Social Infrastructure 44
Table: MAJOR PROJECTS: Residential and Non-Residential Building 44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 45
South Africa - Risk/Reward Index 45
Africa - SSA Infrastructure RRI: Capital Constraints Biting 47
Table: SSA Infrastructure Risk/Rewards Index Table, Q116 51
Market Overview 52
Competitive Landscape 52
Table: EQS Data 53
Company Profile 54
Eskom 54
Transnet 58
Murray and Roberts Group (MandR) 61
Methodology 63
Industry Forecast Methodology 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 68
Sector-Specific Methodology 69
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 69
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 70

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