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Syria Defence and Security Report 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 32 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We forecast Syrian defence expenditure to expand only modestly over the next five years, giventhat the Syrian economy - and government revenues - have collapsed due to the civil war. As the countrydoes not maintain a significant domestic defence industry (and investment into the development of localmilitary manufacturing capabilities is unlikely to be forthcoming amid the ongoing war), we expect thegovernment to remain wholly reliant on foreign allies for defence imports in coming years.

Recent Developments

- In late September 2015, Russia intervened militarily in Syria to support an ailing Assad regime. This hasturned the conflict around and Assad forces are now on the offensive, having recaptured the strategictown of Palmyra, as well as progressing in Latakia and Aleppo.

- Backed by the US, a Kurdish-led coalition has launched an offensive in the north of Raqqa - IS' capital inSyria - while a similar operation led by Arab and Kurdish fighters is targeting the Manbij area, close tothe Turkish border, which is a key logistics base for the transit of foreign fighters and for trade.

- IS has lost territory in the past months, but remains a major actor in the conflict. In late May 2016,Islamist militants launched a counter-attack in northern Syria in an attempt to capture the border withTurkey, through which it can import arms and fighters.

- A major ally of Assad, Tehran has deployed its regular army in Syria since April, in addition to theRevolutionary Guards Special Forces that were already fighting in the conflict.

Table Of Contents

Syria Defence and Security Report 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Headline Defence Expenditure Forecasts (2015-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 8
Defence Expenditure 8
Table: Defence Expenditure (Syria 2014-2019) 8
Table: Defence Expenditure (Syria 2020-2025) 9
Defence Trade 10
Table: Syria - Bilateral Defence Agreements 12
Industry Risk Reward Index 13
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 13
Table: Middle East and North Africa - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index 13
Rewards 14
Risks 14
Market Overview 16
Defence Market Overview 16
Domestic Defence Sector 16
Domestic Defence Market 17
Armed Forces Overview 18
Armed Forces 18
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Syria 2008-2013) 18
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Syria 2015-2020) 20
Security Overview 22
Domestic Threats 22
Regional Threats 25
International Threats 27
Methodology 28
Industry Forecast Methodology 28
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 29
Sector-Specific Methodology 31
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators 31
Weighting 32
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index 32

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